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Expectations about coalitions and strategic voting under proportional representation

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  • Herrmann, Michael
Abstract
In this paper, I suggest that voters may act strategically in proportional representation elections with post-election coalition building. Based on a stylized setup involving three possible coalitions of four parties on a single policy dimension, voters whose preferred coalition is least likely to win are predicted to strategically cast their ballot for a centrist party. By contrast, those who perceive a chance for their preferred coalition to become the next government are predicted to strategically vote for a non-centrist party. I test these predictions against the standard model of sincere proximity voting, using a unique dataset on voter expectations in the Austrian parliamentary election 2006. Analyses show that believing one's preferred coalition is non-viable raises the probability of voting for a centrist vs. non-centrist party while believing one's preferred coalition to be viable lowers the probability of voting for a centrist vs. non-centrist party.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrmann, Michael, 2008. "Expectations about coalitions and strategic voting under proportional representation," Papers 08-28, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2317
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    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2317/1/dp08_28.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Sinopoli & Giovanna Iannantuoni, 2007. "A spatial voting model where proportional rule leads to two-party equilibria," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 35(2), pages 267-286, January.
    2. Meffert, Michael F. & Gschwend, Thomas, 2007. "Voting for Coalitions? The Role of Coalition Preferences and Expectations in Voting Behavior," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-64, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    3. Fisher, Stephen D., 2004. "Definition and Measurement of Tactical Voting: The Role of Rational Choice," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 152-166, January.
    4. Austen-Smith, David & Banks, Jeffrey, 1988. "Elections, Coalitions, and Legislative Outcomes," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 405-422, June.
    5. Indridi H. Indridason, 2011. "Proportional Representation, Majoritarian Legislatures, and Coalitional Voting," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 955-971, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Kamm & Arthur Schram, 2013. "A Simultaneous Analysis of Turnout and Voting under Proportional Representation: Theory and Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-192/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Arkadii Slinko & Shaun White, 2010. "Proportional Representation and Strategic Voters," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 301-332, July.

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