[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/may/mayecw/n1480105.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Ekaterini Panopoulou

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece and Department of Economics, National University of Ireland Maynooth.)

  • B. Groom

    (Department of Economics, University College London.)

  • P. Koundouri

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading, UK and Department of Economics, University College London, UK.)

  • Theologos Pantelidis

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece.)

Abstract
Evaluating investments with long-term consequences using discount rates that decline with the time horizon, (Declining Discount Rates or DDRs) means that future welfare changes are of greater consequence in present value terms. Recent work in this area has turned towards operationalising the theory and establishing a schedule of DDRs for use in cost benefit analysis. Using US data we make the following points concerning this transition: i) model selection has important implications for operationalising a theory of DDRs that depends upon uncertainty; ii) misspecification testing naturally leads to employing models that account for changes in the interest rate generating mechanism. Lastly, we provide an analysis of the policy implications of DDRs in the context of climate change for the US and show that the use of a state space model can increase valuations by 150% compared to conventional constant discounting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterini Panopoulou & B. Groom & P. Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2005. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1480105, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1480105
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.maynoothuniversity.ie/mayecw-files/N1480105.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    2. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Time Horizon and the Discount Rate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 463-473, December.
    8. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Discounting the distant future: how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 52-71, July.
    9. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. "Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-1029, December.
    10. Francq, C. & Zakoian, J. -M., 2001. "Stationarity of multivariate Markov-switching ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 339-364, June.
    11. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. "An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    12. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," IDEI Working Papers 296, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    13. Dieter Bräuninger, 2003. "Demographics and Pension Reforms in the Major Central and Eastern European Countries," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(1), pages 117-132, January.
    14. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    15. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    16. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
    17. Kees G. Koedijk & François G. J. A. Nissen & Peter C. Schotman & Christian C. P. Wolff, 1997. "The Dynamics of Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility Reconsidered," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 1(1), pages 105-130.
    18. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
    19. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    20. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
    21. Martin L. Weitzman, 2001. "Gamma Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 260-271, March.
    22. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Discounting an uncertain future," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 149-166, August.
    23. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    24. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    25. Weitzman, Martin L., 1998. "Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 201-208, November.
    26. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    27. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
    28. David Pearce & Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri, 2003. "Valuing the Future," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, April.
    29. Dybvig, Philip H & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1996. "Long Forward and Zero-Coupon Rates Can Never Fall," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hepburn, Cameron & Koundouri, Phoebe & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2009. "Social discounting under uncertainty: A cross-country comparison," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 140-150, March.
    2. Christian Gollier & Phoebe Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2008. "Declining discount rates: Economic justifications and implications for long-run policy [‘Regime switches in interest rates’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 758-795.
    3. Groom, Ben & Koundouri, Phoebe & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2004. "Model Selection for Estimating Certainty Equivalent Discount Rates," MPRA Paper 122412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    5. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
    6. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi, 2005. "Is There a Unit Root in East-Asian Short-Term Interest Rates?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Discounting the distant future: how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 52-71, July.
    8. Charlotte Christiansen, 2004. "Regime switching in the yield curve," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 315-336, April.
    9. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," IDEI Working Papers 296, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    10. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Christian Gollier, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 171-186, December.
    12. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luís A., 2009. "Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1184-1192, November.
    13. Sandy Suardi & O.T.Henry & N. Olekalns, "undated". "Equity Return and Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility: Level Effects and Asymmetric Dynamics," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0205, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit Root Testing," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 4, pages 41-56, Springer.
    15. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2004. "On the Small Sample Properties of Dickey Fuller and Maximum Likelihood Unit Root Tests on Discrete-Sampled Short-Term Interest Rates," Econometrics 0405004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Birol, Ekin & Koundouri, Phoebe & Kountouris, Yiannis, 2010. "Assessing the economic viability of alternative water resources in water-scarce regions: Combining economic valuation, cost-benefit analysis and discounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 839-847, February.
    17. Dennis Kristensen, 2004. "A Semiparametric Single-Factor Model of the Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers dp501, Financial Markets Group.
    18. Koundouri, Phoebe & Groom, Ben, 2009. "Sustainability and the Economics of the Environment: Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Dynamics of the Long-Run Discount Rate," MPRA Paper 38278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bali, Turan G., 2003. "Modeling the stochastic behavior of short-term interest rates: Pricing implications for discount bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 201-228, February.
    20. T. J. Brailsford & K. Maheswaran, 1998. "The Dynamics of the Australian Short†Term Interest Rate," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(2), pages 213-234, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run discounting; interest rate forecasting; interest rate forecasting; state-space models; regime-switching models; climate change policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1480105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demayie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.