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Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region

Author

Listed:
  • Iman Cheratian

    (Economics Research Group, Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR), Tarbiat Modares University (TMU))

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

    (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg)

  • Saleh Goltabar

    (Economics Research Group, Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR), Tarbiat Modares University (TMU))

Abstract
We examine the effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in the MENA oil-exporting and oil-importing countries over the period 1991-2017. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the results show that in the short-run, the positive changes of oil prices only exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting countries. However, in the long-run, positive changes in oil prices have a significant increasing effect on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries in the MENA region. We also find that the negative changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Our findings are in line with predictions of the Dutch disease hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Iman Cheratian & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Saleh Goltabar, 2019. "Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201931, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Unemployment rate; MENA region; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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