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Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Prices - A Global Country Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Baumgaertner

    (THM Business School)

  • Jens Klose

    (THM Business School)

Abstract
This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We find that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import prices are superior to those neglecting these variables. This holds irrespective of whether the countries are net exporters or importers of commodities. However, the forecasting power was even better in the 1990s and seems to have decreased since that that time. Nevertheless forecasts can even today be improved considerably by adding commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Baumgaertner & Jens Klose, 2018. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Prices - A Global Country Analysis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201812, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201812
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Commodity Prices; Forecast; Panel-Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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