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Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration

Author

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  • P J Perez
  • D R Osborn
  • M Sensier
Abstract
We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the US, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series, together with annual and quarterly growth rates. Using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the US in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjoint from the US for most of the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • P J Perez & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 29, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
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    13. Michael Artis & Wenda Zhang, 1998. "The linkage of interest rates within the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(1), pages 117-132, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Michael Artis, 2006. "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 255-279, July.
    2. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 2008/003, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2010. "Business cycle synchronization of the euro area with the new and negotiating member countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 288-306.
    4. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Álvaro Pina, 2011. "Business Cycles, Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 565-592, September.
    5. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    6. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2013. "Inference on Structural Breaks using Information Criteria," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 54-81, October.
    7. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    8. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 239-259.
    9. Pedro José Pérez & José Ramón García & Luisa Escriche, 2005. "Importancia De Las Perturbaciones Externas En La Economía Española Tras La Integración: ¿Tamaño Del Shock O Grado De Respuesta?," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Denise R Osborn & Pedro J Perez & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Business Cycle Linkages for the G7 Countries: Does the US Lead the World?," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0527, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Leonida Correia & Patrícia Martins, 2019. "Has the sovereign debt crisis changed the cyclicality of Portuguese remittances?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 453-472, May.
    12. D R Osborn & M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Predicting Growth Cycle Regimes for European Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 39, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Business cycle synchronisation in the European Union: The effect of the common currency," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-14.
    14. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.

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