[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lie/wpaper/119.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The transmission of trade shocks across countries:firm-level evidence from the Covid-19 crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantins Beņkovskis

    (Latvijas Banka)

  • Jaanika Meriküll

    (Eesti Pank)

  • Aurelija Proškutė

    (Bank of Lithuania)

Abstract
This paper studies the margins and heterogeneity of adjustments to trade shocks by estimating how Covid19 restrictions affected imports and exports. We use data from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on foreign trade at the level of the firm and the partner country and at monthly frequency from January 2019 to December 2020. The focus is on the short-term adjustment and on the first wave of the pandemic. We find that the adjustment to the restrictions mostly occurs through the intensive margin, meaning trade values are reduced rather than trade in certain markets or products ceasing. It is further observed that quantity played a more important role in the adjustment process than prices and that both upstream and downstream restrictions played an equally important role in the decline of foreign trade. It is shown that differentiated products that are difficult to replace are responsible for this adjustment pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantins Beņkovskis & Jaanika Meriküll & Aurelija Proškutė, 2024. "The transmission of trade shocks across countries:firm-level evidence from the Covid-19 crisis," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 119, Bank of Lithuania.
    • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.lb.lt/uploads/publications/docs/43841_a7c15a1faed678362052dac3ecab8493.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2022. "The trade impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3751-3779, December.
    3. Antoine Berthou & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "How do Multiproduct Exporters React to a Change in Trade Costs?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(2), pages 326-353, April.
    4. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    6. Benguria, Felipe, 2021. "The 2020 trade collapse: Exporters amid the pandemic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    7. Pol Antràs, 2020. "De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age," NBER Working Papers 28115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    9. Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean, 2023. "Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 170-215, March.
    10. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2011. "Multiproduct Firms and Trade Liberalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(3), pages 1271-1318.
    11. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    12. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    13. Sangeeta Khorana & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso & Salamat Ali, 2023. "An anatomy of the impact of COVID‐19 on the global and intra‐Commonwealth trade in goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 550-579, May.
    14. Antrà s, Pol, 2020. "De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age," CEPR Discussion Papers 15462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Sébastien Miroudot, 2020. "Reshaping the policy debate on the implications of COVID-19 for global supply chains," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(4), pages 430-442, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bas, Maria & Fernandes, Ana & Paunov, Caroline, 2024. "How resilient was trade to COVID-19?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    2. Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean, 2023. "Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 170-215, March.
    3. Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "Relationship stickiness, international trade, and economic uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 15609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. ARATA Yoshiyuki & MIYAKAWA Daisuke, 2022. "Demand Shock Propagation Through an Input-output Network in Japan," Discussion papers 22027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Chacha, Peter Wankuru & Kirui, Benard Kipyegon & Wiedemann, Verena, 2024. "Supply Chains in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Kenya’s Production Network," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Hongyong ZHANG & Ha Thi Thanh DOAN, 2024. "Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory During the Pandemic," Working Papers DP-2023-30, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    9. Andrew B. Bernard & Andreas Moxnes, 2018. "Networks and Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 65-85, August.
    10. Yuzuka Kashiwagi & Yasuyuki Todo & Petr Matous, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through global supply chains—Evidence from Hurricane Sandy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1186-1220, November.
    11. Goya, Daniel, 2021. "The network effect of Chinese competition on what domestic suppliers produce," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Aeberhardt, Romain & Buono, Ines & Fadinger, Harald, 2014. "Learning, incomplete contracts and export dynamics: Theory and evidence from French firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 219-249.
    14. Daniel Goya, 2019. "Chinese competition and network effects on the extensive margin," Working Papers 2019-01, Escuela de Negocios y Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso.
    15. Gaurav Khanna & Nicolas Morales & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2022. "Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Indian Firms," NBER Working Papers 30689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jiansuo Pei & Gaaitzen de Vries & Meng Zhang, 2022. "International trade and Covid‐19: City‐level evidence from China's lockdown policy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 670-695, June.
    17. Meier, Matthias & Pinto, Eugenio, 2024. "COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Eckel, Carsten & Iacovone, Leonardo & Javorcik, Beata & Neary, J. Peter, 2015. "Multi-product firms at home and away: Cost- versus quality-based competence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 216-232.
    19. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Arata, Yoshiyuki & Miyakawa, Daisuke, 2024. "Demand shock propagation through input-output linkages in Japan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 262-283.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transmission of shocks; input-output linkages; global value chains; Covid-19; workplace closing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aurelija Proskute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lbanklt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.