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A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Zezza
  • Gennaro Zezza
Abstract
Macroeconomists and political officers need rigorous, albeit realistic, quantitative models to forecast the future paths and dynamics of some variables of interest while being able to evaluate the effects of alternative scenarios. At the heart of all these models lies a standard macroeconomic module which, depending on the degree of sophistication and the research questions to be answered, represents how the economy works. However, the complete absence of a realistic monetary framework, along with the abstraction of banks and more generally of real-financial interactions, not only in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models but also in central banks' structural econometric models, made it impossible to detect the rising financial fragility that led to the Great Recession. In this paper, we show how to address the missing links between the real and financial sectors within a post-Keynesian framework, presenting a quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) structural model of the Italian economy. We set up the accounting structure of the sectoral transactions, describing our "transaction matrix" and "balance sheet matrix," starting from the appropriate sectoral data sources. We then "close" all sectoral financial accounts, describe portfolio choices, and define the buffer stocks for each class of assets and sector in the model. We describe our estimation strategy, present the main stochastic equations, and, finally, discuss the main channels of transmissions in our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_958, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Canelli, Rosa & Fontana, Giuseppe & Realfonzo, Riccardo & Passarella, Marco Veronese, 2024. "Energy crisis, economic growth and public finance in Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Hamid Raza & Thibault Laurentjoye & Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Sebastian Valdecantos, 2023. "Resurgence of inflation: Assessing the role of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Papers PKWP2301, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Meijers, Huub & Muysken, Joan, 2022. "The macroeconomic implications of financialisation on the wealth distribution," MERIT Working Papers 2022-035, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Raza, Hamid & Laurentjoye, Thibault & Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup & Valdecantos, Sebastian, 2023. "Inflation and the role of macroeconomic policies: A model for the case of Denmark," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 32-43.
    5. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, 2022. "Household debt and macroeconomic stability: An empirical stock‐flow consistent model for the Danish economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 144-197, February.
    6. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "When Will Italy Recover?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_10_20, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Barbieri Hermitte, Riccardo & Cagnazzo, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A. & Felici, Francesco & Macauda, Valeria & Nucci, Francesco & Tegami, Cristian, 2023. "ITFIN: A stock-flow consistent model for the Italian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Models; Monetary Policy; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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