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The "Keynesian Moment" in Policymaking, the Perils Ahead, and a Flow-of-funds Interpretation of Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Terzi
Abstract
With the global crisis, the policy stance around the world has been shaken by massive government and central bank efforts to prevent the meltdown of markets, banks, and the economy. Fiscal packages, in varied sizes, have been adopted throughout the world after years of proclaimed fiscal containment. This change in policy regime, though dubbed the "Keynesian moment," is a "short-run fix" that reflects temporary acceptance of fiscal deficits at a time of political emergency, and contrasts with John Maynard Keynes’s long-run policy propositions. More important, it is doomed to be ineffective if the degree of tolerance of fiscal deficits is too low for full employment. Keynes’s view that outside the gold standard fiscal policies face real, not financial, constraints is illustrated by means of a simple flow-of-funds model. This shows that government deficits do not take financial resources from the private sector, and that demand for net financial savings by the private sector can be met by a rising trade surplus at the cost of reduced consumption, or by a rising government deficit financed by the monopoly supply of central bank credit. Fiscal deficits can thus be considered functional to the objective of supplying the private sector with a provision of financial wealth sufficient to restore demand. By contrast, tax hikes and/or spending cuts aimed at reducing the public deficit lower the available savings of the private sector, and, if adopted too soon, will force the adjustment by way of a reduction of demand and standard of living. This notion, however, is not applicable to the euro area, where constraints have been deliberately created that limit public deficits and the supply of central bank credit, thus introducing national solvency risks. This is a crucial flaw in the institutional structure of Euroland, where monetary sovereignty has been removed from all existing fiscal authorities. Absent a reassessment of its design, the euro area is facing a deflationary tendency that may further erode the economic welfare of the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Terzi, 2010. "The "Keynesian Moment" in Policymaking, the Perils Ahead, and a Flow-of-funds Interpretation of Fiscal Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_614, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_614
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jörg Bibow, 2007. "Global Imbalances, Bretton Woods II, and Euroland’s Role in All This," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jörg Bibow & Andrea Terzi (ed.), Euroland and the World Economy, chapter 1, pages 15-42, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/013, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jörg Bibow & Andrea Terzi (ed.), 2007. "Euroland and the World Economy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-37755-4, October.
    4. Paul Davidson, 1978. "Money and the Real World," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-349-15865-2, October.
    5. Heiner Flassbeck, 2007. "Wage Divergences in Euroland: Explosive in the Making," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jörg Bibow & Andrea Terzi (ed.), Euroland and the World Economy, chapter 2, pages 43-52, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Goodhart, Charles A. E., 1998. "The two concepts of money: implications for the analysis of optimal currency areas," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 407-432, August.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis," IMF Occasional Papers 2009/002, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Stephanie A. Kelton & L. Randall Wray, 2009. "Can Euroland Survive?," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_106, Levy Economics Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government and the Monetary System; Fiscal Policy; Keynes; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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