[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/wrkpap/wp_673.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Julio Lopez-Gallardo
  • Luis Reyes-Ortiz
Abstract
We present strong empirical evidence favoring the role of effective demand in the US economy, in the spirit of Keynes and Kalecki. Our inference comes from a statistically well-specified VAR model constructed on a quarterly basis from 1980 to 2008. US output is our variable of interest, and it depends (in our specification) on (1) the wage share, (2) OECD GDP, (3) taxes on corporate income, (4) other budget revenues, (5) credit, and the (6) interest rate. The first variable was included in order to know whether the economy under study is wage led or profit led. The second represents demand from abroad. The third and fourth make up total government expenditure and our arguments regarding these are based on Kalecki's analysis of fiscal policy. The last two variables are analyzed in the context of Keynes's monetary economics. Our results indicate that expansionary monetary, fiscal, and income policies favor higher aggregate demand in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Lopez-Gallardo & Luis Reyes-Ortiz, 2011. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_673, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_673
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_673.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    2. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2004. "On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(4), pages 441-463.
    3. Spanos, Aris, 2009. "The Pre-Eminence of Theory versus the European CVAR Perspective in Macroeconometric Modeling," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-14.
    4. Fair, Ray C, 2005. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 645-660, August.
    5. L. Randall Wray, 1997. "Government as Employer of Last Resort: Full Employment without Inflation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_213, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    7. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Reginald Darius, 2011. "Reversing the Financial Accelerator: Credit Conditions and Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2011/026, International Monetary Fund.
    8. L. Randall Wray & Matthew Forstater (ed.), 2008. "Keynes and Macroeconomics After 70 Years," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12915.
    9. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2008/169, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julio López Gallardo & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2014. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy [Demande Effective dans l'évolution récente de l'économie des Etats-Unis]," Post-Print halshs-01907268, HAL.
    2. Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h560mit97 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Sandrine Levasseur, 2009. "De la crise financière à la crise économique," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03476072, HAL.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    7. P. Siklos, B. Lavender, 2014. "The Credit Cycle And The Business Cycle In Canada And The U.S.: Two Solitudes," LCERPA Working Papers wm0065, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    8. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
    9. Hempell, Hannah S. & Kok, Christoffer, 2010. "The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?," Working Paper Series 1262, European Central Bank.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis, 2021. "Credit supply conditions and business cycles: New evidence from bank lending survey data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Paolo Del Giovane & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2017. "Assessing the Sources of Credit Supply Tightening: Was the Sovereign Debt Crisis Different from Lehman?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 197-234, June.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h560mit97 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Akira Kohsaka & Jun-ichi Shinkai, 2014. "East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    14. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    15. Lea Zicchino & Erlend Nier, 2008. "Bank Losses, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability—Evidence on the Interplay from Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 2008/232, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    17. Andrea Nobili & Andrea Orame, 2015. "Estimating the effects of a credit supply restriction: is there a bias in the Bank Lending Survey?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 266, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61-80.
    19. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2020. "Financial shocks and the relative dynamics of tangible and intangible investment: Evidence from the euro area," Discussion Papers 39/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Seitz, Franz & Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
    21. Engelbert Stockhammer & Paul Ramskogler, 2009. "Post-Keynesian economics How to move forward," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 227-246.
    22. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Effective Demand; Wage Shares; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Model Evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elizabeth Dunn (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.levyinstitute.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.