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Greece's Economy after COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Michalis Nikiforos
  • Gennaro Zezza
Abstract
Greece's fragile economic recovery was halted by the COVID-19 pandemic: GDP, employment, exports, and investment are expected to record significantly negative trends. While some projections for GDP growth show a quick V-shaped recovery beginning in 2021, this is rather improbable given the Greek economy's structural inefficiencies. This strategic analysis explores the consequences of various assumptions about the fall in the different sources of aggregate demand in order to produce a baseline projection for the Greek economy. A more optimistic scenario is also analyzed, in which the European Commission's recently announced Recovery Fund materializes, allowing the government to increase public consumption as well as investment through EU grants and loans. The authors recommend additional measures to alleviate the impact of the shock and help put Greece’s economy back on track when the epidemic has died out.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "Greece's Economy after COVID-19," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_5_20, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_5_20
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    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/sa_may_20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michalis Nikiforos, 2020. "Crisis, Austerity, and Fiscal Expenditure in Greece: Recent Experience and Future Prospects in the Post-COVID-19 Era," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_151, Levy Economics Institute.
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