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On the timing and optimality of capital controls: Public expenditures, debt dynamics and welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Raouf Boucekkine
  • Aude Pommeret
  • Fabien Prieur
Abstract
This paper solves a second-best problem where a government has in particular to choose whether to tax financial inflows (capital controls) or not, and when. A multi-stage optimal control technique is used to this end. First, it is shown that it is optimal to switch in finite time from capital controls to full financial liberalization (zero tax on capital inflows) whenever a measure of total wealth is above a certain threshold. In particular, a too large initial debt makes financial liberalization sub-optimal. Second, our analysis suggests that capital controls should be used countercyclically: booms should be responded by more financial liberalization while recessions should rather lead to more stringent capital controls. Third, when public expenditure is chosen in order to maximize social welfare, financial liberalization is not unaffordable only for poor countries, even wealthy countries might find it optimal to implement capital controls if they aim to keep a large amount of public expenditure. In short, the preservation of the welfare states might require a more frequent use of capital controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2012. "On the timing and optimality of capital controls: Public expenditures, debt dynamics and welfare," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 12.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    • Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:12.01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boucekkine, Raouf & Saglam, Cagri & Valléee, Thomas, 2004. "Technology Adoption Under Embodiment: A Two-Stage Optimal Control Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 250-271, April.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
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    6. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2011. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 147-179, February.
    7. Raouf Boucekkine & Jacek Krawczyk & Thomas Vallée, 2011. "Environmental quality versus economic performance: A dynamic game approach," Post-Print hal-03193660, HAL.
    8. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick A. Pintus, 2018. "Short-run pain, long-run gain: the conditional welfare gains from international financial integration," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 329-360, March.
    9. Raouf Boucekkine & Patrick Pintus, 2012. "History’s a curse: leapfrogging, growth breaks and growth reversals under international borrowing without commitment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 27-47, March.
    10. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
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    13. Mr. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Capital Controls Imposed for Prudential Reasons+L4888," IMF Working Papers 2011/298, International Monetary Fund.
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    15. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    16. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick Pintus, 2012. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration," AMSE Working Papers 1202, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 27 Jun 2016.
    17. Makris, Miltiadis, 2001. "Necessary conditions for infinite-horizon discounted two-stage optimal control problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1935-1950, December.
    18. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick A. Pintus, 2018. "Short-run pain, long-run gain: the conditional welfare gains from international financial integration," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 329-360, March.
    19. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick-Antoine Pintus, 2011. "Leapfrogging, Growth Reversals and Welfare," Working Papers halshs-00576743, HAL.
    20. Kevin Gallagher, 2012. "The Myth of Financial Protectionism: The New (and old) Economics of Capital Controls," Working Papers wp278, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2024. "Dynamic Optimization with Timing Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.
    4. Daria Onori, 2015. "Optimal Growth and Debt Dynamics under GDP-Based Collaterals," Working Papers halshs-01251352, HAL.
    5. Yutao Han & Zhen Song, 2017. "On regional integration, fiscal income, and GDP per capita," CEMA Working Papers 600, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    6. Yutao Han & Zhen Song, 2022. "On regional integration, fiscal income, and GDP per capita," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(5), pages 506-532, November.
    7. Daria Onori, 2013. "Optimal Growth under Flow-Based Collaterals," Working Papers halshs-00824672, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital controls; second-best; debt; public expenditures; multi-stage optimal control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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