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Eight Years of Doha Trade Talks: Where Do We Stand?

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Bouet

    (Larefi)

  • David Laborde

    (IFPRI)

Abstract
In 2001, the World Trade Organization launched a highly ambitious program of multilateral liberalization. Eight years later, concluding the negotiations is uncertain, though an opportunity still exists. Since 2001, many proposals on market access have been brought to the negotiating table by the European Union, the United States, and the G-20. Because it is politically and economically acceptable to many parties, the final December 2008 package could be the basis of an agreement. An evaluation of these various proposals shows how trade negotiations have been following countries’ strategic interests. In eight years, the ambition of the formula to reduce agricultural market access tariffs has increased, but flexibilities added to accommodate domestic political constraints have offset delivered market access. The December 2008 package would reduce these average tariffs by 25 percent, a reduction very close to the one implied by the Harbinson and Girard proposals of 2003. This has to be compared with the 73 percent reduction in world agricultural protection of the very ambitious 2005 U.S. proposal. The 2005 G-20 and EU proposals were intermediate outcomes. The December 2008 package implies a reduction of agricultural protection by 6 percentage points in high-income countries and 0.5 percentage points in middle-income countries. If the U.S. proposal had been applied, these figures would have been 12.4 and 4.7, respectively. Different scenarios imply losses for developing countries, reflecting eroded preferences and rising terms of trade for imported commodities, including food products. We study how this trade reform can be more development-friendly.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bouet & David Laborde, 2010. "Eight Years of Doha Trade Talks: Where Do We Stand?," Larefi Working Papers 201003, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:laf:wpaper:201003
    as

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.u-bordeaux4.fr/pub/RePEc/laf/cahiers/2010/CR10-EFI_03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouet, Antoine & Mishra, Santosh & Roy, Devesh, 2008. "Does Africa trade less than it should and why?," Conference papers 331793, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha Round:," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 6, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2008. "Choosing Sensitive Agricultural Products in Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 2008-18, CEPII research center.
    4. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "Why is the Doha Development agenda failing? And what can be done? A computable general equilibrium-game theoretical approach :," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 3, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Bouët Antoine & Laborde-Debucquet David & Dienesch Elisa & Elliott Kimberly, 2012. "The Costs and Benefits of Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access for Poor Countries: Who and What Matters," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, June.
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    11. Bouët Antoine & Laborde-Debucquet David & Dienesch Elisa & Elliott Kimberly, 2012. "The Costs and Benefits of Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access for Poor Countries: Who and What Matters," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, June.
    12. Berisha-Krasniqi, Valdete & Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David & Mevel, Simon, 2008. "The development promise: Can the doha development agenda deliver for least developed countries?," Research briefs 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Yvan Decreux & Jean-Louis Guérin & Sébastien Jean, 2002. "MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis," Working Papers 2002-17, CEPII research center.
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    15. Bouet, Antoine & Mishra, Santosh & Roy, Devesh, 2008. "Does Africa trade less than it should, and if so, why?: The role of market access and domestic factors," IFPRI discussion papers 770, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "What next for the DDA? Quantifying the role of negotiation modalities," RSCAS Working Papers 2014/61, European University Institute.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "What Did Happen in the DDA? Quantifying the Role of Negotiation Modalities," Working Papers 2013-38, CEPII research center.
    4. Douillet, Mathilde, 2011. "Which trade integration scheme can best help Sub-Saharan Africa develop and export more processed agricultural goods?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1119, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor," MPRA Paper 40948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade policy reforms in the new agricultural context: Is regional integration a priority for Sub-Saharan African countries agricultural-led industrialization? Insights from a global computable general," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126546, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Mathilde Douillet, 2011. "What are the agricultural exports growth perspectives offered to sub-Saharan countries by current trade negotiations?," EcoMod2011 3116, EcoMod.
    10. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor," Conference papers 332277, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Mathilde Douillet, 2012. "Trade policies and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa Comparative analysis in a Computable General Equilibrium framework [Politiques commerciales et agriculture en Afrique Sub-Saharienne : analyse c," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03676037, HAL.
    12. Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "The Doha Round: Virtuous circle or infinite loop?," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Ron, Juan Francisco, 2010. "Food Security, Price Volatility and Trade: Some Reflections for Developing Countries," Price Volatility and Beyond 320195, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    14. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade negotiations; computable general equilibrium modeling; developing countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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