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Persistent vs. Permanent Income Shocks in the Buffer-Stock Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jeppe Druedahl

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract
We investigate the effects of assuming a fully permanent income shock in a standard buffer-stock consumption model, when the true income process is only highly persistent. This assumption is computationally very advantageous, and thus often used, but might be problematic due to the implied misspecification. Across most parameterizations, and using the method of simulated moments, we find a relatively large estimation bias in preference parameters. For example, assuming a unit root process when the true AR(1) coefficient is 0.97, leads to an estimation bias of up to 30 percent in the constant relative risk aversion coefficient. If used for calibration, misspecified preferences could, for example, lead to a serious misjudgment in the value of social insurance mechanisms. Economic behavior, such as the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), of households simulated from the estimated (misspecified) model is, on the other hand, rather close to that from the correctly specified model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeppe Druedahl & Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen, 2016. "Persistent vs. Permanent Income Shocks in the Buffer-Stock Model," Discussion Papers 16-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1604
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistent and permanent income shocks; imperfect markets life cycle model; simulated method of moments; marginal propensity to consume;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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