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Use of Money Supply in the Conduct of Japan's Monetary Policy: Reexamining the Time Series Evidence

Author

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  • Ryuzo Miyao

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract
Japan's money supply and its role in monetary policy have drawn considerable attention especially since the Bank of Japan adopted its "quantitative easing" scheme in March 2001. This paper focuses on the role of money supply as an information variable and reexamines the empirical relationship between money and economic activity with recent data extending through 2003. We show that the linkage between M2+CD and income or prices largely disappeared in the 1990s and explore possible reasons for this breakdown. The evidence suggests that (i) time deposits lost their predictive content for future economic activity in the 1990s, which seems a primary reason for the breakdown in the M2-income relationship, (ii) bank loans also became no longer useful in forecasting subsequent movements in output in the late 1990s, and (iii) there has been a close link between time deposits and bank loans throughout the period examined. We argue that Japan's persistent non-performing loans problem and ongoing efforts by firms and banks to trim excessive and inefficient bank loans may have caused the breakdown in the bank loan-income relationship and accordingly the breakdown in the M2-income relationship by way of time deposits over the last decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryuzo Miyao, 2004. "Use of Money Supply in the Conduct of Japan's Monetary Policy: Reexamining the Time Series Evidence," Discussion Paper Series 163, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Canova, Fabio & Menz, Tobias, 2010. "Japan's Lost decade: Does money have a role?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 178-195, June.
    2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    3. Shin-Ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya, 2012. "A Rise Of China And The Japanese Economy: Evidence From Macro- And Firm-Level Micro-Data," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-27.
    4. Schenkelberg, Heike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2013. "Real effects of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 327-357.
    5. Eryilmaz, Unal, 2021. "Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini [Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions]," MPRA Paper 111685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    7. Kawakami, Kei, 2013. "Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Yosuke Takeda & Atsuko Ueda, 2006. "Uncovering the Goodhart's Law: Theory and Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Mukesh Khanal, 2011. "Monetary Neutrality in the Nepalese Economy during 1975-2008," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 71-91, April.
    10. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2010. "The Rise of China and the Sustained Recovery of Japan," Chapters, in: Takatoshi Ito & Chin Hee Hahn (ed.), The Rise of China and Structural Changes in Korea and Asia, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tomura, Hajime, 2017. "Fiscal cost to exit quantitative easing: the case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-11.
    12. Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    13. Koichiro Kamada & Tomohiro Sugo, 2006. "Evaluating Japanese Monetary Policy under the Non-negativity Constraint on Nominal Short-term Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    14. Mukesh Khanal, 2011. "Monetary Neutrality in the Nepalese Economy during 1975-2008," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 71-91, April.
    15. Kiyotaka Nakashima, 2008. "Ideal And Real Japanese Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis Of Actual And Optimal Policy Measures," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 345-369, September.
    16. Michal Franta, 2011. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan Using Sign Restrictions within the TVP-VAR Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Hiroshi FUJIKI & Kiyotaka Nakashima, 2019. "Cash Usage Trends in Japan: Evidence Using Aggregate and Household Survey Data," Working Papers e131, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    18. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Umeda, Masanobu & Wakita, Shigeru, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Japan Reconsidered: A Regime-switching VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 87391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2021. "The time-frequency analysis of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

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