[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kob/dpaper/dp2011-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Katsushi S. Imai

    (Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester (UK) and RIEB, Kobe University (Japan))

  • Jing You

    (School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, China)

Abstract
The objective of our study is to identify pattern and causes of households' transitions in and out of poverty using the long household panel data on rural China in the period 1989-2009. We propose a discrete-time multi-spell duration model that not only corrects for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across transitions and various destinations within the transition, but also addresses the endogeneity due to dynamic selection associated with household's livelihood strategies. Duration dependence is generally found to be negative for both poverty exit and re-entry. The household who chose either farming or out-migration as a main livelihood strategy was more likely to escape from this persistent poverty than those who took local non-agricultural employment, while the role of social protection, such as health insurance, was not universally good for alleviating chronic poverty. Overall, the present study emphasises the central role of agriculture in helping the chronically poor escape from poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsushi S. Imai & Jing You, 2011. "Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-35, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2011-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2011-35.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duclos, Jean-Yves & Araar, Abdelkrim & Giles, John, 2010. "Chronic and transient poverty: Measurement and estimation, with evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 266-277, March.
    2. Du, Yang & Park, Albert & Wang, Sangui, 2005. "Migration and rural poverty in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 688-709, December.
    3. Sylvie Démurger & Martin Fournier & Yang Weiyong, 2009. "Rural households decisions towards income diversification − Evidence from a township in northern China," Post-Print halshs-00957824, HAL.
    4. Olga Canto, 2002. "Climbing out of poverty, falling back in: low income stability in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(15), pages 1903-1916.
    5. World Bank, 2009. "China - From Poor Areas to Poor People : China’s Evolving Poverty Reduction Agenda - An Assessment of Poverty and Inequality in China," World Bank Publications - Reports 3031, The World Bank Group.
    6. Marjan Maes, 2013. "Poverty persistence among the elderly in the transition from work to retirement," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(1), pages 35-56, March.
    7. Christiaensen, Luc & Pan,Lei & Wang, Sangui, 2010. "Drivers of Poverty Reduction in Lagging Regions: Evidence from Rural Western China," WIDER Working Paper Series 035, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
    9. Stefan Dercon, 2009. "Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, April.
    10. Benjamin, Dwayne & Brandt, Loren & Giles, John, 2005. "The Evolution of Income Inequality in Rural China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(4), pages 769-824, July.
    11. Christiaensen, Luc & Todo, Yasuyuki, 2014. "Poverty Reduction During the Rural–Urban Transformation – The Role of the Missing Middle," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 43-58.
    12. Wagstaff, Adam & Lindelow, Magnus, 2008. "Can insurance increase financial risk?: The curious case of health insurance in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 990-1005, July.
    13. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    14. Alan de Brauw & John Giles, 2017. "Migrant Opportunity and the Educational Attainment of Youth in Rural China," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(1), pages 272-311.
    15. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010. "The Developing World is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625.
    16. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter & C. Peter Timmer, 2010. "A Century-Long Perspective on Agricultural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 447-468.
    17. Alain De Janvry, 2010. "Agriculture for development: new paradigm and options for success," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 17-36, November.
    18. Adam Wagstaff & Winnie Yip & Magnus Lindelow & William C. Hsiao, 2009. "China's health system and its reform: a review of recent studies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(S2), pages 7-23, July.
    19. Francesco Devicienti, 2002. "Poverty persistence in Britain: A multivariate analysis using the BHPS, 1991–1997," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 307-340, December.
    20. Jin, Songqing & Deininger, Klaus, 2009. "Land rental markets in the process of rural structural transformation: Productivity and equity impacts from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 629-646, December.
    21. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2007. "China's (uneven) progress against poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-42, January.
    22. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2010. "Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction: Additional Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 1-20, February.
    23. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    24. Björn Gustafsson & Ding Sai, 2009. "Temporary And Persistent Poverty Among Ethnic Minorities And The Majority In Rural China," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(s1), pages 588-606, July.
    25. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Transient Poverty in Postreform Rural China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 338-357, June.
    26. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
    27. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    28. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "China is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4621, The World Bank.
    29. Gustafsson, Bjorn & Li, Shi, 2004. "Expenditures on education and health care and poverty in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 292-301.
    30. Glauben, Thomas & Herzfeld, Thomas & Wang, Xiaobing, 2006. "The Persistence of Poverty in Rural China: Applying an Ordered Probit and a Hazard Approach," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25249, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    31. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 60-67, March.
    32. McCulloch, Neil & Calandrino, Michele, 2003. "Vulnerability and Chronic Poverty in Rural Sichuan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 611-628, March.
    33. Park, Albert & Wang, Sangui, 2001. "China's poverty statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 384-398.
    34. Montalvo, Jose G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2010. "The pattern of growth and poverty reduction in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 2-16, March.
    35. Felix Naschold & Christopher B. Barrett, 2011. "Do Short‐Term Observed Income Changes Overstate Structural Economic Mobility?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 705-717, October.
    36. Bigsten, Arne & Shimeles, Abebe, 2008. "Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994-2004," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1559-1584, September.
    37. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts," NBER Working Papers 6385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
    39. Jikun Huang & Yunhua Wu & Scott Rozelle, 2009. "Moving off the farm and intensifying agricultural production in Shandong: a case study of rural labor market linkages in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(2), pages 203-218, March.
    40. Jones-Smith, Jessica C. & Popkin, Barry M., 2010. "Understanding community context and adult health changes in China: Development of an urbanicity scale," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(8), pages 1436-1446, October.
    41. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    42. Yaohui Zhao, 2003. "The Role of Migrant Networks in Labor Migration: The Case of China," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 500-511, October.
    43. David Clark & David Hulme, 2010. "Poverty, time and vagueness: integrating the core poverty and chronic poverty frameworks," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(2), pages 347-366, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiandong Chen & Sishi Rong & Malin Song, 2021. "Poverty Vulnerability and Poverty Causes in Rural China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 65-91, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katsushi S. Imai & Jing You, 2014. "Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(6), pages 898-923, December.
    2. Glauben, Thomas & Herzfeld, Thomas & Rozelle, Scott & Wang, Xiaobing, 2012. "Persistent Poverty in Rural China: Where, Why, and How to Escape?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 784-795.
    3. Jing You & Sangui Wang & Laurence Roope, 2018. "Intertemporal deprivation in rural china: income and nutrition," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(1), pages 61-101, March.
    4. Ward, Patrick S., 2016. "Transient Poverty, Poverty Dynamics, and Vulnerability to Poverty: An Empirical Analysis Using a Balanced Panel from Rural China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 541-553.
    5. Jing You, 2014. "Dietary change, nutrient transition and food security in fast-growing China," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 9, pages 204-245, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. J. You, 2011. "Evaluating poverty duration and transition: a spell-approach to rural China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1377-1382.
    7. Alma Kudebayeva, 2018. "Chronic Poverty in Kazakhstan," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp627, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    8. Yingfeng Fang & Fen Zhang, 2021. "The Future Path To China’s Poverty Reduction—Dynamic Decomposition Analysis With The Evolution Of China’s Poverty Reduction Policies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 507-538, December.
    9. Jing You & Sangui Wang & Laurence Roope, 2014. "Multi-dimensional Intertemporal Poverty in Rural China," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-36, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Gustafsson, Björn Anders & Sai, Ding, 2008. "Temporary and Persistent Poverty among Ethnic Minorities and the Majority in Rural China," IZA Discussion Papers 3791, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    12. Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing & Xia, Fang & Huang, Jikun, 2014. "Moving Off the Farm: Land Institutions to Facilitate Structural Transformation and Agricultural Productivity Growth in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 505-520.
    13. Glauben, Thomas & Herzfeld, Thomas & Wang, Xiaobing, 2006. "The Persistence of Poverty in Rural China: Applying an Ordered Probit and a Hazard Approach," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25249, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Yu Chen & Sylvie Démurger, 2014. "Pro-rural Policies, Income, and Inequality: Evaluating a Cash-for-Work Program in Rural China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 13(3), pages 87-114, Fall.
    15. Xin Meng & Chris Manning & Li Shi & Tadjuddin Nur Effendi (ed.), 2010. "The Great Migration," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13619.
    16. Luo, Jay, 2019. "Poverty alleviation research in rural China: Three decades and counting," SocArXiv gmuav, Center for Open Science.
    17. Qu, Zhaopeng (Frank) & Zhao, Zhong, 2008. "Urban-Rural Consumption Inequality in China from 1988 to 2002: Evidence from Quantile Regression Decomposition," IZA Discussion Papers 3659, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Duclos, Jean-Yves & Araar, Abdelkrim & Giles, John, 2010. "Chronic and transient poverty: Measurement and estimation, with evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 266-277, March.
    19. Iryna Kyzyma, 2014. "Changes in the Patterns of Poverty Duration in Germany, 1992–2009," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 305-331, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty transition; Discrete-time duration model; Correlated unobserved heterogeneity; Dynamic selection; Rural China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2011-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rikobjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.