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On the Sensitivity of Return to Schooling Estimates to Estimation Methods, Model Specification, and Influential Outliers If Identification Is Weak

Author

Listed:
  • Jaeger, David A.

    (University of St. Andrews)

  • Parys, Juliane

    (McKinsey&Co)

Abstract
We provide a comparison of return to schooling estimates based on an influential study by Angrist and Krueger (1991) using two stage least squares (TSLS), limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), jackknife (JIVE), and split sample instrumental variables (SSIV) estimation. We find that the estimated return to education is quite sensitive to the age controls used in the models as well as the estimation method used. In particular, we provide evidence that JIVE coefficients' standard errors are inflated by a group of extreme years of education observations, for which identification is especially weak. We propose to use Cook's Distance in order to identify influential outliers having substantial influence on first-stage JIVE coefficients and fitted values.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaeger, David A. & Parys, Juliane, 2009. "On the Sensitivity of Return to Schooling Estimates to Estimation Methods, Model Specification, and Influential Outliers If Identification Is Weak," IZA Discussion Papers 3961, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3961
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    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp3961.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Chao & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Estimation and Testing Using Jackknife IV in Heteroskedastic Regressions With Many Weak Instruments," Departmental Working Papers 200420, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Jerry A. Hausman & Whitney K. Newey & Tiemen Woutersen & John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2012. "Instrumental variable estimation with heteroskedasticity and many instruments," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 211-255, July.
    3. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    4. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2002. "Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1249-1287, November.
    5. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863, Elsevier.
    6. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 1993. "Split Sample Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 699, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1673-1692, September.
    9. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    10. Adrian R Pagan & Anthony D Hall, 1983. "Diagnostic tests as residual analysis," Published Paper Series 1983-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Anderson, T.W., 2005. "Origins of the limited information maximum likelihood and two-stage least squares estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 1-16, July.
    12. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Split-Sample Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Return to Schooling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 225-235, April.
    13. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-681, May.
    14. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cook's Distance; heteroskedasticity; outliers; return to education; specification; weak instruments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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