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Minimum Global Tax: Winners and Losers in the Race for Mergers and Acquisitions

Author

Listed:
  • Amendolagine, Vito

    (University of Foggia)

  • Bruno, Randolph Luca

    (University College London)

  • Cipollina, Maria

    (University of Molise)

  • De Pascale, Gianluigi

    (University of Foggia)

Abstract
This study aims to quantify the impact of the global minimum corporate tax rate – a pillar of the OECD's reform of international taxation – on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) involving large multinational enterprises (MNEs). First, the influence of differences in capital taxation on bilateral cross-border M&A is assessed using a structural gravity model. The resulting estimated coefficients are then applied to evaluate the impact of a 15% global minimum tax rate on cross-border investments by firms whose revenue exceeds €750 million, whenever the target country's corporate tax rate is lower. The study exploits a large, disaggregated dataset of 13,562 investor-firm M&A data points from 2001 to 2020 relating to 516 industries, defined at the 4-digit level of the NACE Rev. 2 classification, in 109 'source' countries, and 559 industries (defined at the same of detail) in 161 'target' countries. The empirical results suggest that M&A flows are higher when the source and target countries have similar tax rates, while the overall effect of the global minimum corporate tax on M&A flows would be negative (as expected), but small.

Suggested Citation

  • Amendolagine, Vito & Bruno, Randolph Luca & Cipollina, Maria & De Pascale, Gianluigi, 2023. "Minimum Global Tax: Winners and Losers in the Race for Mergers and Acquisitions," IZA Discussion Papers 16144, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global tax rate; bilateral foreign direct investment; profit shifting; Structural Gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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