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The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change

Author

Listed:
  • Büttner, Nicolas

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Grimm, Michael

    (University of Passau)

  • Günther, Isabel

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Harttgen, Kenneth

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Klasen, Stephan

    (University of Göttingen)

Abstract
Despite the recent economic growth in many countries on the African continent, the region has seen a slow fertility transition. In this study, we explore whether the lack of structural economic change can explain this slow fertility transition. We create a unique panel data set combining Demographic and Health Surveys, Household Income Surveys, and nighttime light intensity data, as an indicator for industrialization, from 57 countries at the sub-national regional level over three decades to analyze the driving forces of fertility transitions across low- and middle-income countries. Our results confirm that household wealth, reduced child mortality, and female basic education are crucial for fertility reductions. Yet, our analysis also highlights the important role of increased female labor force participation in the formal sector, industrialization, increased female secondary education, and the expansion of health insurance coverage. Urbanization appears to have a limited, if any, effect. Our simulations indicate that if high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa had experienced similar structural economic change as low- and middle-income countries with low fertility, their fertility levels could be up to 50% lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2023. "The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change," IZA Discussion Papers 15966, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15966
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; fertility; demographic transition; human capital; sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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