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The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality in the United States: Benefits and Costs of Adaptation

Author

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  • Deschenes, Olivier

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

Abstract
This paper reviews and extends the recent empirical literature on the impact of climate change on mortality and adaptation in the United States. The analysis produces several new facts. First, the reductions in the impact of extreme heat on mortality risk previously documented up to 2004 have continued up to 2019, consistent with continued investments in health-protecting adaptations to high temperatures. The second part of the paper examines the private and external costs of electricity generation and consumption related to high temperatures, a commonly-used proxy for measuring the consumption of adaptation services. Extreme temperatures increase electricity demand in the residential sector (relative to moderate temperatures), but not in the commercial, industrial, and transportation end-use sectors. The additional electricity demand in response to high temperatures results in significant external costs due to the release of local and global pollutants caused by the combustion of fossil fuels in order to produce electricity. These external costs, documented for the first time in this paper, are one order of magnitude larger than the private cost of adaptation associated with electricity consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Deschenes, Olivier, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality in the United States: Benefits and Costs of Adaptation," IZA Discussion Papers 15448, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15448
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    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp15448.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garth Heutel & Nolan H. Miller & David Molitor, 2021. "Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature across U.S. Climate Regions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 740-753, October.
    2. Mullins, Jamie T. & White, Corey, 2020. "Can access to health care mitigate the effects of temperature on mortality?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2015. "Convergence in Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from High Temperatures and Mortality, 1900-2004," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 247-251, May.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 659-681, November.
    5. Stephen Jarvis & Olivier Deschenes & Akshaya Jha, 2022. "The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1311-1346.
    6. Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur & Nicholas Z. Muller & Andrew J. Yates, 2020. "Decompositions and Policy Consequences of an Extraordinary Decline in Air Pollution from Electricity Generation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 244-274, November.
    7. Deschenes, Olivier, 2014. "Temperature, human health, and adaptation: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 606-619.
    8. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    9. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2017. "Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quality: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2958-2989, October.
    10. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    11. Léopold T. Biardeau & Lucas W. Davis & Paul Gertler & Catherine Wolfram, 2020. "Heat exposure and global air conditioning," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 25-28, January.
    12. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short And Long Run Impacts Of Climate Change On Residential Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Using Big Data," NBER Working Papers 24397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Anin Aroonruengsawat & Maximilian Auffhammer, 2011. "Impacts of Climate Change on Residential Electricity Consumption: Evidence from Billing Data," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 311-342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nicholas Z. Muller & Robert Mendelsohn, 2009. "Efficient Pollution Regulation: Getting the Prices Right," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1714-1739, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Molitor, David & White, Corey, 2024. "Do cities mitigate or exacerbate environmental damages to health?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Shihan Xie & Victoria Wenxin Xie & Xu Zhang, 2024. "Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans," Staff Working Papers 24-1, Bank of Canada.
    3. Duffy, Kelly & De Bruin, Kelly & Henry, Loïc & Kweku-Kyei, Clement & Nolan, Anne & Walsh, Brendan, 2024. "Health impacts of climate change and mitigation policies in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS188.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; extreme temperature; mortality; adaptation; air pollution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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