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Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Reduce Employment? Evidence from Early State-Level Expirations in June 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Holzer, Harry J.

    (Georgetown University)

  • Hubbard, Glenn

    (Columbia University)

  • Strain, Michael R.

    (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research)

Abstract
The generosity of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits was expanded during the pandemic (FPUC), along with the groups of workers eligible for benefits (PUA). These two programs were set to expire in September 2021, but 18 states opted out of both in June 2021. Using Current Population Survey data, we present difference-in-difference and event study estimates that the flow of unemployed workers into employment increased by over one half following early termination. We construct a counterfactual scenario that implies the national unemployment rate in each of July and August would have been around 0.3 percentage point lower than they were, and the employment-population ratio would have been around 0.1-0.2 percentage point higher than it was, had all states ended FPUC and PUA in June. Expanded eligibility and generosity of UI may have both slowed transitions from unemployment to employment. We also present some suggestive evidence that households with relatively high confidence in their ability to meet expenses may have been less sensitive to the termination of expanded benefits. Finally, we present evidence that early termination reduced the share of households that had no difficulty meeting expenses by five percent. The welfare implications of the early termination of FPUC and PUA are therefore ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Holzer, Harry J. & Hubbard, Glenn & Strain, Michael R., 2021. "Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Reduce Employment? Evidence from Early State-Level Expirations in June 2021," IZA Discussion Papers 14927, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee & Minsung Park & Yongseok Shin, 2021. "Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the COVID-19 Shock," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 367-383, October.
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    3. Krueger, Alan B. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2002. "Labor supply effects of social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 33, pages 2327-2392, Elsevier.
    4. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    5. Arindrajit Dube, 2021. "Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation," NBER Working Papers 28470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ganong, Peter & Noel, Pascal & Vavra, Joseph, 2020. "US unemployment insurance replacement rates during the pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Acosta, Miguel & Mueller, Andreas I. & Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of UI Extensions at Short and Long Durations," IZA Discussion Papers 16400, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Stefanie Haeffele & Jordan K. Lofthouse & Agustin Forzani, 2023. "The Perils of Regulating COVID–19: Insights from Kirznerian Entrepreneurship and Ostromian Polycentricity," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 331-355, September.
    3. Jia, Ye (George), 2023. "Did the unemployment benefits extension between 2009–2013 deter entrepreneurship in the US? Some evidence and a model of unemployment benefits and entrepreneurship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Iris Arbogast & Bill Dupor, 2022. "Increasing Employment by Halting Pandemic Unemployment Benefits," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(3), pages 166-177, July.
    5. Sarah Albert & Olivia Lofton & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Robert G. Valletta, 2022. "Unemployment Insurance Withdrawal," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(09), pages 1-05, April.
    6. Carranza, Eliana & Veuger, Stan & Weber, Michael, 2023. "Protecting Workers, Firms, and Worker-Firm Attachment During COVID-19: Economic Considerations for the Assessment of Policy Measures," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 32571393, The World Bank.
    7. Jeffrey Clemens & Philip G. Hoxie & Stan Veuger, 2022. "Was Pandemic Fiscal Relief Effective Fiscal Stimulus? Evidence from Aid to State and Local Governments," NBER Working Papers 30168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dean Hyslop & Dave Maré & Shannon Minehan, 2023. "COVID-19 Wage Subsidy: Outcome evaluation," Working Papers 23_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    9. Harry J. Holzer & Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2024. "Did pandemic unemployment benefits increase unemployment? Evidence from early state‐level expirations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 24-38, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment insurance; FPUC; PUA; unemployment rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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