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Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Coibion, Olivier

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Weber, Michael

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract
We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree strongly about the likely outcome of the election, despite widespread publicly available polling information. Most Democrats are very confident in a Biden win while most Republicans are very confident in a Trump win. Second, respondents predict a fairly rosy economic scenario if their preferred candidate wins but a dire one if the other candidate wins. Since most respondents are confident in their favored outcome, unconditional forecasts are similar across parties despite the fact that underlying probability distributions and conditional forecasts are very different. Third, when presented with recent polling data, most voters change their views by little unless they are independent and/or have relatively weak priors about the outcome. Information that emphasizes the uncertainty in polling data has larger effects in terms of reducing polarization in expected probabilities over different electoral outcomes. Fourth, exogenous information that changes individuals' probability distribution over electoral outcomes also changes their unconditional forecasts in a corresponding manner. These changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 13823, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2021. "Fiscal Policy and Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," NBER Working Papers 28485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.
    3. Diego Marino Fages, 2024. "Motivated Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Discussion Papers 2024-08, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    4. Dagostino, Ramona & Gao, Janet & Ma, Pengfei, 2023. "Partisanship in loan pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    5. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2024. "Preaching to the agnostic: Inflation reporting can increase trust in the central bank but only among people with weak priors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Ester Faia & Andreas Fuster & Vincenzo Pezone & Basit Zafar, 2024. "Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 829-847, May.
    7. Damiano Sandri & Francesco Grigoli & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "Keep calm and bank on: panic-driven bank runs and the role of public communication," BIS Working Papers 1119, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Kuang, Pei & Luca, Davide & Wei, Zhiwu & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Great or grim? Disagreement about Brexit, economic expectations and household spending," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119200, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Bao, Te & Wei, Lijia & Yu, Yang, 2022. "The impact of information interventions on public opinion on social media regulation: Evidence from a survey on Twitter’s Trump Ban," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    10. Kempf, Elisabeth & Luo, Mancy & Schafer, Larissa & Tsoutsoura, Margarita, 2022. "Does Political Partisanship Cross Borders? Evidence from International Capital Flows," Working Papers 316, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    11. Boumans, Dorine & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas & Ruthardt, Fabian, 2024. "Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    12. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    13. Arntz, Melanie & Blesse, Sebastian & Doerrenberg, Philipp, 2022. "The end of work is near, isn't it? Survey evidence on automation angst," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Bui, Dzung & Dräger, Lena & Hayo, Bernd & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Macroeconomic expectations and consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of others’ beliefs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Ethan Struby & Christina Farhart, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study," Working Papers 2024-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    elections; political views; COVID-19; expectations; randomized controlled trial; Bayesian learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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