[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/izm/wpaper/1203.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Granger-Causality between Transportation and GDP: A Panel Data Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar

    (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

  • Müge Karacal

    (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

  • Ý. Hakan Yetkiner

    (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

Abstract
This study investigates the Granger-causality relationship between real per capita GDP and transportation of EU-15 countries using a panel data set covering the period 1970-2008. Our findings indicate that the dominant type of Granger-causality is bidirectional. Accordingly, we conclude that care must be paid in defining the dependent and independent variables when studying the relationship between transportation and income. Instances of one-way or no Granger-causality were found to correspond with countries with the lowest income per capita ranks in 1970 and/or in 2008, including Portugal, Greece and Italy. We speculate that bi-directional Granger causality between income and transportation is observed only after an economy has completed its transition in terms of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar & Müge Karacal & Ý. Hakan Yetkiner, 2012. "The Granger-Causality between Transportation and GDP: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 1203, Izmir University of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:izm:wpaper:1203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eco.ieu.edu.tr/wp-content/wp1203.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin T. Duffy-Deno & Randall W. Eberts, 1996. "Public Infrastructure and Regional Economic Development: A Simultaneous Equations Approach," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Niles Hansen & Kenneth J. Button & Peter Nijkamp (ed.),Regional Policy and Regional Integration, pages 295-309, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    3. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
    4. Loretta Singletary & Mark Henry & Kerry Brooks & James London, 1995. "The Impact Of Highway Investment On New Manufacturing Employment In South Carolina: A Small Region Spatial Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 37-55, Summer.
    5. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque, 2005. "Causality Between Public Investment In Transport And Communication And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 95-106, June.
    6. Boarnet, Marlon G., 1996. "The Direct and Indirect Economic Effects of Transportation Infrastructure," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1506r290, University of California Transportation Center.
    7. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    8. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:0:p:s151-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    10. M E Haque & D H Kim, 2003. "Public Investment in Transportation and Communication and Growth: A Dynamic Panel Approach," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0324, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    12. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "How does public infrastructure affect regional economic performance?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 34, pages 69-112.
    13. Xiaobo Zhang & Shenggen Fan, 2004. "How Productive Is Infrastructure? A New Approach and Evidence from Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 492-501.
    14. Randolph, Susan & Bogetic, Zeljko & Hefley, Dennis, 1996. "Determinants of public expenditure on infrastructure : transportation and communication," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1661, The World Bank.
    15. Henrik Hansen & John Rand, 2006. "On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 21-41, January.
    16. Elton Fernandes & Ricardo Rodrigues Pacheco, 2010. "The causal relationship between GDP and domestic air passenger traffic in Brazil," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 569-581, July.
    17. Sturm, Jan-egbert & Jacobs, Jan & Groote, Peter, 1999. "Output Effects of Infrastructure Investment in the Netherlands, 1853-1913," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 355-380, April.
    18. Mofidi, Alaeddin & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Do State and Local Taxes Affect Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 686-691, November.
    19. Nadiri, M Ishaq & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 1994. "The Effects of Public Infrastructure and R&D Capital on the Cost Structure and Performance of U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 22-37, February.
    20. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2009. "The Granger-causality between health care expenditure and output: a panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 511-518.
    21. Piyapong Jiwattanakulpaisarn & Robert B. Noland & Daniel J. Graham & John W. Polak, 2009. "Highway infrastructure and state‐level employment: A causal spatial analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 133-159, March.
    22. William E. Cullison, 1993. "Public investment and economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 19-34.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6159 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Garcia-Mila, Teresa & McGuire, Therese J & Porter, Robert H, 1996. "The Effect of Public Capital in State-Level Production Functions Reconsidered," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 177-180, February.
    25. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    26. Lynde, Catherine & Richmond, J, 1993. "Public Capital and Long-Run Costs in U.K. Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 880-893, July.
    27. T. R. Lakshmanan, 2007. "The Wider Economic Benefits of Transportation: An Overview," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2007/8, OECD Publishing.
    28. Christophe HURLIN, 2007. "Testing Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1547, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    29. Seitz, Helmut, 1993. "A Dual Economic Analysis of the Benefits of the Public Road Network," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 27(3), pages 223-239, September.
    30. Crihfield, John B. & Panggabean, Martin P. H., 1995. "Is public infrastructure productive? A metropolitan perspective using new capital stock estimates," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 607-630, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qipeng Sun & Xiu Wang & Fei Ma & Yanhu Han & Qianqian Cheng, 2019. "Synergetic Effect and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Railway Transportation in Sustainable Development of Trade: An Empirical Study Based on the Belt and Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Xiongbin Lin & Ian MacLachlan & Ting Ren & Feiyang Sun, 2019. "Quantifying economic effects of transportation investment considering spatiotemporal heterogeneity in China: a spatial panel data model perspective," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(3), pages 437-459, December.
    3. Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Transportation intensity, urbanization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in the G-20 countries," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 50-66.
    4. Myszczyszyn Janusz, 2021. "Development of Transport as a Factor of the Economic Miracle (Wirtschaftswunder) of West Germany," Studia Historiae Oeconomicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 189-215, December.
    5. C. S. Verma & Gulnawaz Usmani, 2019. "Relationship Between Health and Economic Growth in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 13(3), pages 344-356, December.
    6. Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar & Hakan Yetkiner, 2017. "Convergence in transportation measures across the EU-15," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 927-940, September.
    7. Muhammad Shafique & Anam Azam & Muhammad Rafiq & Xiaowei Luo, 2020. "Evaluating the Relationship between Freight Transport, Economic Prosperity, Urbanization, and CO 2 Emissions: Evidence from Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Samir, Saidi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Akhtar, Pervaiz, 2018. "The Long-Run Relationship between Transport Energy Consumption and Transport Infrastructure on Economic Growth in MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 85037, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Mar 2018.
    9. Sun, Yu & Cui, Yin, 2018. "Evaluating the coordinated development of economic, social and environmental benefits of urban public transportation infrastructure: Case study of four Chinese autonomous municipalities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 116-126.
    10. Yuee Gao & Xin Zou & Rujia Chen & Yanli Ma & Chengjiang Li & Yaping Zhang, 2020. "Freight Mode Coordination in China: From the Perspective of Regional Differences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, April.
    11. Janusz Myszczyszyn & Bartosz Mickiewicz, 2019. "Long-Term Correlations between the Development of Rail Transport and the Economic Growth of the German Reich (1872-1913)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 126-139.
    12. Elena Cigu & Daniela Tatiana Agheorghiesei & Anca Florentina Gavriluță (Vatamanu) & Elena Toader, 2018. "Transport Infrastructure Development, Public Performance and Long-Run Economic Growth: A Case Study for the Eu-28 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pozo-Barajas, Rafael, 2016. "An econometric evaluation of the management of large-scale transport infrastructure in Spain during the great recession: Lessons for infrastructure bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 302-313.
    14. Sanwei He & Shan Yu & Lei Wang, 2021. "The nexus of transport infrastructure and economic output in city-level China: a heterogeneous panel causality analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(1), pages 113-135, February.
    15. Yanli Ma & Jieyu Zhu & Gaofeng Gu & Ke Chen, 2020. "Freight Transportation and Economic Growth for Zones: Sustainability and Development Strategy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Barros Simões, William Douglas & Vidal Vieira, José Geraldo & Magalhães de Oliveira, Renata Lúcia, 2024. "On causal links of the municipal concentration of logistics warehouses," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 271-281.
    17. Li, Hongbo & Liu, Yali & Peng, Kaili, 2018. "Characterizing the relationship between road infrastructure and local economy using structural equation modeling," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 17-25.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sanwei He & Shan Yu & Lei Wang, 2021. "The nexus of transport infrastructure and economic output in city-level China: a heterogeneous panel causality analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(1), pages 113-135, February.
    2. Holmgren, Johan & Merkel, Axel, 2017. "Much ado about nothing? – A meta-analysis of the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 13-26.
    3. Zhenhua Chen & Kingsley E. Haynes, 2015. "Public surface transportation and regional output: A spatial panel approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(4), pages 727-751, November.
    4. Zhenhua Chen & Kingsley E. Haynes, 2015. "Regional Impact of Public Transportation Infrastructure," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 29(3), pages 275-291, August.
    5. Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar & Mehmet Yeşim Kuştepeli, 2011. "Infrastructure, Economic Growth and Population Density in Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 39-57, December.
    6. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    7. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Infrastructures: A Literature Review and Empirical Analysis on the Case of Italy," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    8. Zhenhua Chen & Kingsley Haynes, 2015. "Multilevel assessment of public transportation infrastructure: a spatial econometric computable general equilibrium approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(3), pages 663-685, May.
    9. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    10. Nigel Spence & Antonis Rovolis, 2002. "Duality theory and cost function analysis in a regional context: the impact of public infrastructure capital in the Greek regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 36(1), pages 55-78.
    11. Michael L. Lahr & Rodrigo Duran & Anupa Varughese, 2004. "Estimating the Impact of Highways on Average Travel Velocities and Market Size," Urban/Regional 0403009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Wei Zou & Fen Zhang & Ziyin Zhuang & Hairong Song, 2008. "Transport Infrastructure, Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: Empirical Analysis of China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 345-371, November.
    13. Macdonald, Ryan, 2008. "An Examination of Public Capital's Role in Production," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2008050e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    14. Rosina Moreno Serrano & Manuel Artis Ortuno & Enrique Lopez Bazo & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1997. "Evidence on the complex link between infrastructure and regional growth," Working Papers in Economics 19, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    15. Ozbay, Kaan & Ozmen-Ertekin, Dilruba & Berechman, Joseph, 2007. "Contribution of transportation investments to county output," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 317-329, July.
    16. Raffaello Bronzini & Paolo Piselli, 2006. "Determinants of long-run regional productivity: the role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 597, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Torstein Bye & Alexandra Katz, 1995. "Returns to Publicly Owned Transport Infrastructure Investment . A Cost Function/Cost Share Approach for Norway, 1971-1991," Discussion Papers 154, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    18. William F. Fox & Sanela Porca, 2001. "Investing in Rural Infrastructure," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(1), pages 103-133, January.
    19. Nikos Benos & Nikolaos Mylonidis & Stefania Zotou, 2017. "Estimating production functions for the US states: the role of public and human capital," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 691-721, March.
    20. Michael Iacono & David Levinson, 2012. "Rural Highway Expansion and Economic Development: Impacts on Private Earnings and Employment," Working Papers 000101, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger-causality; Transportation; Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:izm:wpaper:1203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ayla Ogus Binatli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deieutr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.