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Counterfactual impact evaluation of EU rural development programmes - Propensity Score Matching methodology applied to selected EU Member States. Volume 2: A regional approach

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Abstract
objective of this study is to analyze the impact of EU RD programmes on rural regions. Aggregated effects of a given RD programme at regional levels are estimated using the Rural Development Index (RDI) a proxy describing the overall quality of life in individual rural areas. The impacts of individual RD measures are analysed by means of a counterfactual analysis by applying combination of the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) (e.g. Kernel matching) and difference-in-differences (DID) methods (i.e. by comparing supported regions and matched control group, prior to the programme and after it). Evaluation of programme effects (by programme measures) at regional level is carried out on the basis of the estimated policy parameters: Average Treatment Effects (ATE), Average Treatment on Treated (ATT) and Average Treatment on Untreated (ATU) effects by using the RDI Index and unemployment ratios as impact indicators. Given information on regional intensity to programme exposure (financial input flows by regions) the overall impact of obtained support via a given RD programme is estimated by means of a dose-response function and derivative dose-response function within the framework of a generalized propensity score matching (GPS). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis (Rosenbaum bounds) is carried out in order to assess a possible influence of unobservables on obtained results (under a binary PSM methodology). Above methodologies are empirically applied to evaluation of the impact of the SAPARD programme in Poland and Slovakia in years 2002-2005 at NUTS-4 level. Results show a full applicability of proposed approach to the measurement of the impact of rural development and structural programmes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerzy Michalek, 2012. "Counterfactual impact evaluation of EU rural development programmes - Propensity Score Matching methodology applied to selected EU Member States. Volume 2: A regional approach," JRC Research Reports JRC72060, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc72060
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    1. Paul R. Rosenbaum, 2004. "Design sensitivity in observational studies," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(1), pages 153-164, March.
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    1. Roberto Cagliero & Francesco Licciardo & Marzia Legnini, 2021. "The Evaluation Framework in the New CAP 2023–2027: A Reflection in the Light of Lessons Learned from Rural Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Zoltán Bakucs & Imre Fertő & Zsófia Benedek, 2019. "Success or Waste of Taxpayer Money? Impact Assessment of Rural Development Programs in Hungary," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, April.
    3. repec:zbw:iamodp:327297 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Roberto Cagliero & Andrea Arzeni & Federica Cisilino & Alessandro Montelelone & Patrizia Borsotto, 2021. "Ten years after: Diffusion, criticism and potential improvements in the use of FADN for Rural Development assessment in Italy," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 23(3), pages 1-24.
    5. Esposti, Roberto, 2014. "The Impact of the 2005 CAP-First Pillar Reform as a Multivalued Treatment Effect -Alternative Estimation Approaches," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 173005, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Javier Castaño & Maria Blanco & Pilar Martinez, 2019. "Reviewing Counterfactual Analyses to Assess Impacts of EU Rural Development Programmes: What Lessons Can Be Learned from the 2007–2013 Ex-Post Evaluations?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, February.
    7. Fresenbet Zeleke & Girma T. Kassie & Jema Haji & Belaineh Legesse, 2021. "Would Market Sheds Improve Market Participation and Earnings of Small Ruminant Keepers? Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 470-485, June.
    8. Yoomi Kim & Katsuya Tanaka & Shunji Matsuoka, 2020. "Environmental and economic effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    9. Ondřej Dvouletý & Ivana Blažková, 2019. "Assessing the microeconomic effects of public subsidies on the performance of firms in the czech food processing industry: A counterfactual impact evaluation," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 394-422, July.
    10. Fuhong Zhang & Apurbo Sarkar & Hongyu Wang, 2021. "Does Internet and Information Technology Help Farmers to Maximize Profit: A Cross-Sectional Study of Apple Farmers in Shandong, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Möllers, Judith & Herzfeld, Thomas & Batereanu, Lucia & Arapi-Gjini, Arjola, 2022. "An analysis of farm support measures in the Republic of Moldova," IAMO Discussion Papers 327297, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    12. Bakucs Zoltán & Fertő Imre, 2019. "Convergence or Divergence? Analysis of Regional Development Convergence in Hungary," Eastern European Countryside, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 121-143, December.
    13. Marin Kukoc & Bruno Skrinjaric & Josip Juracak, 2020. "The Impact Assessment of the EU Pre-Accession Funds on Agriculture and Food Companies: The Croatian Case," Working Papers 2002, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    14. Roberto ESPOSTI, 2014. "To match, not to match, how to match: Estimating the farm-level impact of the CAP-first pillar reform (or: How to Apply Treatment-Effect Econometrics when the Real World is;a Mess)," Working Papers 403, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Fertő, Imre & Bakucs, Zoltán & Varga, Ágnes, 2016. "Impact of EU subsidies on the of rural areas in Hungary," 160th Seminar, December 1-2, 2016, Warsaw, Poland 249826, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Esposti, Roberto, 2015. "To match, not to matchm how to match: Estimating the farm-level impact of the 2005 CAP-first pillar reform," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211625, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Lajos Baráth & Imre Fertő & Štefan Bojnec, 2020. "The Effect of Investment, LFA and Agri‐environmental Subsidies on the Components of Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Slovenian Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 853-876, September.
    18. Riccardo D’Alberto & Matteo Zavalloni & Meri Raggi & Davide Viaggi, 2018. "AES Impact Evaluation With Integrated Farm Data: Combining Statistical Matching and Propensity Score Matching," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, November.
    19. Lillemets, Jüri & Fertő, Imre & Viira, Ants-Hannes, 2022. "The socioeconomic impacts of the CAP: Systematic literature review," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Bakucs, Zoltan, 2018. "Convergence or Divergence? Analysis of Regional Development Convergence in Hungary," 92nd Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2018, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 273487, Agricultural Economics Society.
    21. Schwarz, Gerald & Wolff, Anne & Offermann, Frank & Osterburg, Bernhard & Aalders, Inge & Miller, David & Morrice, Jane & Vlahos, George & Smyrniotopoulou, Alexandra & Artell, Janne & Aakkula, Jyrki & , 2014. "ENVIEVAL Development and application of new methodological frameworks for the evaluation of environmental impacts of EU rural development programmes," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182933, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Krzysztof Piotr Pawłowski & Wawrzyniec Czubak & Jagoda Zmyślona, 2021. "Regional Diversity of Technical Efficiency in Agriculture as a Results of an Overinvestment: A Case Study from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, June.
    23. Wawrzyniec Czubak & Krzysztof Piotr Pawłowski, 2020. "Sustainable Economic Development of Farms in Central and Eastern European Countries Driven by Pro-investment Mechanisms of the Common Agricultural Policy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, March.
    24. Bakucs, Z. & Ferto, I., 2018. "Analysis of Regional Development Convergence at Sub-National Level. The Case of Hungary," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277230, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic analysis; impact assessment; Common Agricultural Policy; agricultural trade; agricultural markets; competitiveness; modelling tools; price volatility; database;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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