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Wagner and the Fading Voracity Effect: Short vs. Long-Run Effects in Developing Countries

Author

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  • João Tovar Jalles
Abstract
This paper empirically revisits the validity of Wagner’s proposition in a panel of 149 developing countries between 1980-2015 by focusing on different components of government expenditure. We rely on an ARDL approach which allow us to uncover short and long-run cyclicality coefficients. Our results do not overwhelmingly support the existence of higher than unity long-run elasticities of government spending components vis-a-vis economic growth, suggesting that the Wagner’s regularity is more the exception than the norm. Moreover, the case for voracity is fading away as developing countries catch-up the development ladder and graduate from procyclicality. In fact, most short-run elasticities are countercyclical. Finally, some macroeconomic and institutional and political characteristics affect the degree of government spending cyclicality.

Suggested Citation

  • João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Wagner and the Fading Voracity Effect: Short vs. Long-Run Effects in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2019/0101, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01012019
    as

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    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_0101_2019.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abbott, Andrew & Cabral, René & Jones, Philip & Palacios, Roberto, 2015. "Political pressure and procyclical expenditure: An analysis of the expenditures of state governments in Mexico," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 195-206.
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    5. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. James M. Poterba & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote99-1.
    9. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    10. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    11. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:607-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government expenditure; fiscal policy; government size; political economy; mean group; panel stationarity; cross-sectional dependency; weighted least squares; autoregressive distributed lag;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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