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Slowdown in bank credit growth: Aggregate demand or bank non-performing assets?

Author

Listed:
  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Akhilesh Verma

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract
This paper tests the bank lending channel against the aggregate demand channel as an explanation for slow credit growth by estimating the determinants of credit and of non- performing assets (NPAs) using three types of data sets: a quarterly macroeconomic time series, a bank panel on advances and NPAs and a firm level panel. The results suggest demand was and remains the key constraint for credit. Only demand variables affected corporate credit for a broad set of firms-sales and inventory were the only significant variables. Only for a subset of indebted firms in a difference-in-difference type analysis, did lagged credit and assets reduce credit, even so sales remained the dominant variable. From the bank panel gross NPAs did not have a negative effect on advances but the Asset Quality Review did have a strong negative effect. NPAs fell with growth, increased with repo rates and with past advances Therefore, while high interest rates and low growth raised NPAs, so did past credit. If the priority is to revive assets and get credit flowing again, the valuable deadline imposed by the new bankruptcy code must be supported by flexibility in restructuring, funds infusion in PSBs, and easing of macroeconomic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh Verma, 2017. "Slowdown in bank credit growth: Aggregate demand or bank non-performing assets?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-014
    as

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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2017-014.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2023. "Lessons from outperformance in the Indian financial sector," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(5), pages 805-817, November.
    2. Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Post Covid-19: recovering and sustaining India’s growth," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 161-181, November.
    3. Das, Abhiman & Mohapatra, Sanket & Nigania, Akshita, 2022. "State-owned banks and credit allocation in India: Evidence from an asset quality review," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-02-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    4. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "The Growth slowdown and the working of inflation targeting in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2018-007, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Aswini Kumar Mishra & Shikhar Jain & Mohammad Abid & Manogna R L, 2021. "Macro‐economic determinants of non‐performing assets in the Indian banking system: A panel data analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3819-3834, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit slowdown; aggregate demand; bank lending; non-performing assets; firm debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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