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To Bt or not to Bt? Risk and uncertainty considerations in technology assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Sarthak Gaurav

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Srijit Mishra

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract
The acreage under the transgenic Bt cotton seeds in India has risen significantly since its legalization in the year 2002. Discussions on the advantages from the technology have focused on increments in productivity and income, without much analysis on risk. We point out that claims on productivity gains seem to be misplaced, as appropriate counterfactuals do not exist for the same hybrids. In this article we analyse production costs and crop incomes in drought years to test a simplistic theory of risk based on first principles. We employ a mixed-methods framework to draw inferences by combining data from two cross-sectional surveys in Gujarat (Saurashtra and Southern-Plains) and Maharashtra (Western Vidarbha) for the period 2009-10 and compare it with unit-level data for the corresponding regions from a nationally representative sample for the period 2002-03. Empirical evidence, though limited, brings out the problem of how a high cost technology could be associated with higher risks and may be dominated by traditional alternatives under certain conditions. Ethnographic accounts from the field provide qualitative support to our understanding of potential risks and uncertainties associated with the new technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarthak Gaurav & Srijit Mishra, 2012. "To Bt or not to Bt? Risk and uncertainty considerations in technology assessment," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2012-001
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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2012-001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. E. Desmond, 2017. "Risk definition and the struggle for legitimation: a case study of Bt cotton in Andhra Pradesh, India," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 135-150, January.
    2. Bhim Reddy & Ranjit Prakash & Busam Monika Reddy, 2021. "Dynamics of Agricultural Labour in Small-Farm Economy: Work, Gender and Technologies in Cotton Production in Telangana," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 64(1), pages 49-71, March.
    3. Katharina Najork & Susheel Gadela & Padmarao Nadiminti & Sreeramulu Gosikonda & Raghava Reddy & Ejnavarzala Haribabu & Markus Keck, 2021. "The Return of Pink Bollworm in India’s Bt Cotton Fields: Livelihood Vulnerabilities of Farming Households in Karimnagar District," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 21(1), pages 68-85, January.
    4. Elaine Desmond, 2016. "The legitimation of risk and Bt cotton: a case study of Bantala village in Warangal, Andhra Pradesh, India," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 233-245, February.
    5. Katharina Najork & Jonathan Friedrich & Markus Keck, 2022. "Bt cotton, pink bollworm, and the political economy of sociobiological obsolescence: insights from Telangana, India," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(3), pages 1007-1026, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bt cotton; agricultural risk; technology evaluation; mixed-methods; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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