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On the structural determinants of growth-at-risk

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Gächter
  • Martin Geiger
  • Elias Hasler
Abstract
We examine structural di erences in growth vulnerabilities across countries associated with financial risk indicators. Considering trade openness, financial sector size, the public spending ratio and government effectiveness, our findings suggest the existence of a structural gap and a risk sensitivity gap. Hence, structural country characteristics not only drive level di erences in growth-at-risk (GaR) but also give rise to di erences in the responsiveness of GaR to financial risks. Furthermore, we show that the impact of structural characteristics varies over the forecasting horizon. A proper understanding of structural country characteristics in the context of the GaR framework is important to facilitate the use of the concept in macroprudential policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Gächter & Martin Geiger & Elias Hasler, 2022. "On the structural determinants of growth-at-risk," Working Papers 2022-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2022-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    2. Emter, Lorenz & Setzer, Ralph & Zorell, Nico & Moura, Afonso S., 2024. "Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality," Working Paper Series 2989, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth-at-risk; vulnerable growth; structural characteristics; macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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