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Do Banks Price Environmental Transition Risks? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in a Chinese Province

Author

Listed:
  • Bihong Huang
  • Maria Teresa Punzi
  • Yu Wu
Abstract
This paper assesses the financial risks arising from transition toward a low-emission economy. The environmental DSGE model shows tightening environmental regulation impairs firms’ balance sheets, and consequently threatens financial stability in the short term. The empirical analysis indicates that following the implmentation of Clean Air Action Plan, the default rates of high-polluting firms in a Chinese province rose by around 80 percent. Joint equity commercial banks with higher level of independence were able to appropriately price in their exposure to transition risks, while the Big Five commercial banks failed to factor in such risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bihong Huang & Maria Teresa Punzi & Yu Wu, 2021. "Do Banks Price Environmental Transition Risks? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in a Chinese Province," IMF Working Papers 2021/228, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/228
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Cardenas, 2024. "Financial climate risk: a review of recent advances and key challenges," Papers 2404.07331, arXiv.org.
    2. Wang, Jiaxin & Qiang, Haofan & Liang, Yuchao & Huang, Xiang & Zhong, Wenrui, 2024. "How carbon risk affects corporate debt defaults: Evidence from Paris agreement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Qihang Xue & Huimin Wang & Caiquan Bai, 2023. "Local green finance policies and corporate ESG performance," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 721-749, December.
    4. Barbara Annicchiarico & Marco Carli & Francesca Diluiso, 2022. "Climate Policies, Macroprudential Regulation, and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," CEIS Research Paper 543, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 31 Oct 2022.
    5. He Xiao, 2022. "How does air pollution affect corporate information environment?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 987-1016, December.
    6. Wang, Chao & Li, Mengyu & Liu, Xiaoxing, 2024. "Does credit carbon exposure affect banks' profits and risks? Evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    7. Shu, Hao & Tan, Weiqiang & Wei, Ping, 2023. "Carbon policy risk and corporate capital structure decision," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Liu, Yulin & Wang, Junbo & Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Chunchi, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A creative destruction perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Xiao, He, 2022. "Environmental regulation and firm capital structure dynamics," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 770-787.
    10. Wongsinhirun, Nopparat & Chatjuthamard, Pattanaporn & Jiraporn, Pornsit & Lee, Sang Mook, 2024. "Customer concentration and shareholder litigation risk: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    11. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2024. "The role of macroprudential policies under carbon pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 858-875.
    12. Gong, Xu & Liao, Qin, 2024. "Physical climate risk attention and dynamic volatility connectedness among new energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Chaudhry, Neeru & Kumari, Damini, 2024. "How do banks price carbon risk? Evidence from India," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Fushuai Wang & Wenxia Cai & Ehsan Elahi, 2021. "Do Green Finance and Environmental Regulation Play a Crucial Role in the Reduction of CO 2 Emissions? An Empirical Analysis of 126 Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Pan, Zhilei & Li, Shouwei & Li, Jingwei & Gong, Chen, 2024. "Air pollution and bank risk taking: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Aslan, Caglayan & Bulut, Erdem & Cepni, Oguzhan & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2022. "Does climate change affect bank lending behavior?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    17. Ding, Hao & Ji, Qiang & Ma, Rufei & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2022. "High-carbon screening out: A DCC-MIDAS-climate policy risk method," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    18. Xin, Baogui & Jiang, Kai, 2023. "Central bank digital currency and the effectiveness of negative interest rate policy: A DSGE analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Rao, Amar & Kumar, Satish & Gupta, Prashant & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of interest rate volatility on Asian energy companies: A comparative study of fossil and renewable sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Chan, Ying Tung & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Zhao, Hong, 2024. "Green transition and financial stability: The role of green monetary and macroprudential policies and vouchers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    21. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Derouiche, Imen & Hassan, Majdi & Liu, Pei-Zhi, 2024. "Do creditors price climate transition risks? A natural experiment based on China's carbon emission trading scheme," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 138-155.
    22. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara, 2023. "Green preferences," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3211-3253, April.
    23. Cepni, Oguzhan & Şensoy, Ahmet & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2024. "Climate change exposure and cost of equity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E-DSGE Model; Financial stability; Clean Air Action Plan; transition risk; baseline analysis; default rate; data source; capital market department; Loans; Environmental policy; Commercial banks; Self-employment; Global;
    All these keywords.

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