[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2013-144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon

Author

Listed:
  • Issouf Samaké
  • Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora
  • Mr. Bruno Versailles
Abstract
This paper assesses the implications of the use of oil revenue for public investment on growth and fiscal sustainability in Cameroon. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of such investment on growth and on the path of key fiscal indicators, such as the non-oil primary deficit and public debt. Policy scenarios show that Cameroon’s large infrastructural needs and relatively low current debt levels could justify a temporary deviation from traditional policy advice that suggests saving part of the oil revenue to smooth expenditure over time. Model simulations show that a relatively high degree of efficiency of public investment is needed for scaled-up public investment to make a significant contribution to growth, while maintaining fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Issouf Samaké & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Mr. Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 2013/144, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40644
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have," NBER Working Papers 5847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benjamin, Nancy C. & Devarajan, Shantayanan & Weiner, Robert J., 1989. "The Dutch disease in a developing country : Oil reserves in Cameroon," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 71-92, January.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    6. Mr. Alan H. Gelb & Mr. Arnaud Dupuy & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2012. "Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution: The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Administrative Capacity," IMF Working Papers 2012/200, International Monetary Fund.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Cameroon: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/287, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Era Dabla-Norris & Jim Brumby & Annette Kyobe & Zac Mills & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 235-266, September.
    9. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-166, February.
    10. Gupta, Sanjeev & Kangur, Alvar & Papageorgiou, Chris & Wane, Abdoul, 2014. "Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-178.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    12. Mr. H. Takizawa & Mr. E. H. Gardner & Mr. Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 2004/141, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi & Getachew, Yoseph Yilma & Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2016. "Optimal Public Investment, Growth, And Consumption: Evidence From African Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(8), pages 1957-1986, December.
    14. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    15. Chakraborty Shankha & Dabla-Norris Era, 2011. "The Quality of Public Investment," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, August.
    16. Charalambos Pattichis, 2010. "The intertemporal budget constraint and current account sustainability in Cyprus: evidence and policy implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 463-473.
    17. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    18. Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/004, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Frederick Ploeg, 2012. "Bottlenecks in ramping up public investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 509-538, August.
    20. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, December.
    21. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo.
    22. Ms. Alexandra Tabova & Ms. Carol L Baker, 2011. "Determinants of Non-oil Growth in the CFA-Zone Oil Producing Countries: How do they Differ?," IMF Working Papers 2011/233, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Augustin Kwasi Fosu & Yoseph Getachew & Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Optimal Public Investment, Growth, and Consumption: Fresh Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers 201464, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    24. Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 2006/183, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Debt and Growth Revisited," MPRA Paper 24376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Arbache, Jorge Saba & Page, John, 2007. "More growth or fewer collapses ? a new look at long run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4384, The World Bank.
    27. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Mauricio Villafuerte & Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/04, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Alan Gelb & Sina Grasmann, 2010. "How Should Oil Exporters Spend Their Rents?," Working Papers 221, Center for Global Development.
    29. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov & Ms. Misa Takebe & Zaijin Zhan & Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita & Mr. Robert C York, 2009. "Improving Surveillance Across the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 2009/260, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Augustin Ntembe & Aloysius Ajab Amin & Regina Tawah, 2018. "Analysis of public investments and economic growth in Cameroon," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 591-614, July.
    2. Amin Karimu & George Adu & George Marbuah & Justice Tei Mensah & Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah, 2017. "Natural Resource Revenues and Public Investment in Resource-rich Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 107-130, November.
    3. repec:ilo:ilowps:488131 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Amin Karimu & George Adu & George Marbuah & Justice Tei Mensah & Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah, 2017. "Natural Resource Revenues and Public Investment in Resource-rich Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 107-130, November.
    5. Keyra Primus, 2016. "Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," IMF Working Papers 2016/188, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ray, Nikhil. & Velasquez, Agustin. & Islam, Iyanatul,, 2015. "Fiscal rules, growth and employment : a developing country perspective," ILO Working Papers 994881313402676, International Labour Organization.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Cameroon: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/237, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    3. Andrew Berg & Edward F. Buffie & Catherine Pattillo & Rafael Portillo & Andrea F. Presbitero & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2019. "Some Misconceptions About Public Investment Efficiency and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 409-430, April.
    4. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    5. Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
    6. Wills, Samuel, 2018. "Leave the volatility fund alone: Principles for managing oil wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 332-352.
    7. Keyra Primus, 2016. "Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," IMF Working Papers 2016/188, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Carranza-Ugarte, Luis & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2023. "Rethinking fiscal rules," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 833-857.
      • Luis Carranza Ugarte & Julian Diaz Saavedra & Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, 2021. "Rethinking fiscal rules," ThE Papers 21/14, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    9. Samuel Wills, 2015. "Seven Principles for Managing Resource Wealth," Economics Series Working Papers OxCarre Research Paper 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
    11. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Analysis Of Energy Subsidies In A Small Open Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1806, October.
    12. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting together the Pieces," IMF Working Papers 2012/144, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Bin Grace Li & Pranav Gupta & Jiangyan Yu, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 7-25.
    14. Gurara, Daniel & Kpodar, Kangni & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Tessema, Dawit, 2021. "On the capacity to absorb public investment: How much is too much?☆," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Salifou Issoufou & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mouhamadou Bamba Diop & Kalidou Thiaw, 2014. "Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal," IMF Working Papers 2014/044, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Christine J. Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Ms. Susan S. Yang, 2013. "Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies: An Application to Angola," IMF Working Papers 2013/147, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Adrian Alter & Matteo Ghilardi & Ms. Dalia S Hakura, 2015. "Public Investment in a Developing Country Facing Resource Depletion," IMF Working Papers 2015/236, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Andrei S. Akhremenko & Alexander Petrov, 2014. "Efficiency, Policy Selection, And Growth In Democracy And Autocracy: A Formal Dynamical Model," HSE Working papers WP BRP 16/PS/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    19. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    20. Anthony J. Venables & Samuel E. Wills, 2016. "Resource Funds: Stabilising, Parking, and Inter-generational Transfer," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 25(suppl_2), pages 20-40.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.