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Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Andrle
  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Rogelio Morales
  • Mr. Rafael A Portillo
  • Mr. Jan Vlcek
Abstract
We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Mr. Andrew Berg & Rogelio Morales & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya," IMF Working Papers 2013/061, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mai Dao & Mr. Alfredo Baldini, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis: The Case of Zambia," IMF Working Papers 2012/094, International Monetary Fund.
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    8. Mr. Peter J Montiel & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2010. "Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/223, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2015. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 53(4), pages 237-271, December.
    3. Andres Gonzalez & Alexander Guarin & Diego A. Rodriguez-Guzman & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1106, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    5. Ms. Luisa Charry & Pranav Gupta & Mr. Vimal V Thakoor, 2014. "Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda," IMF Working Papers 2014/159, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah & Florian Gerth, 2021. "Towards Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Regime in Mauritius," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Luisa Charry & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/197, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
    9. Kris Boudt & Hong Anh Luu, 2022. "Estimation and decomposition of food price inflation risk," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(2), pages 295-319, June.
    10. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine & Sebudde, Rachel, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Rafael Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Stephen O’Connell & Richard Peck, 2016. "Implications of food subsistence for monetary policy and inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 782-810.
    13. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik,Ila, 2014. "Monetary policy analysis in an inflation targeting framework in emerging economies: The case of India," Working Papers 14/131, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Allan Dizioli & Jochen M. Schmittmann, 2015. "A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam," IMF Working Papers 2015/273, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Michal Andrle & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Enrico G Berkes & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek & Rogelio Morales, 2013. "Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya," IMF Working Papers 2013/239, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2014. "Food and Nutrition Scenario of Kenya," MPRA Paper 56218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 May 2014.
    17. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2013. "Poverty and economic development of Kenya," MPRA Paper 51072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jul 2013.
    18. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.

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