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To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America

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  • Mr. Nicolas E Magud
  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta
Abstract
This paper estimates neutral real interest rate (NRIR) ranges for 10 Latin American countries that either have full-fledged inflation targeting regimes in place or have recently adopted them, using an array of methodologies commonly used in the literature. We find that NRIRs have declined in the last decade, with more economically and financially developed economies exhibiting lower NRIR levels. Based on the estimated NRIRs, we assess that the current monetary stance (measured by the interest rate gap) is appropriately neutral in most of the considered economies, in line with closing output gaps. We also observe that the interest rate gap can be a good predictor of future inflation dynamics and economic growth. In addition, looking at the recent experiences in Brazil and Peru, we suggest that macro-prudential policies could affect the monetary stance even in the absence of direct interest rate changes, through affecting the NRIR.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/243
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary spillovers with imperfect financial markets," Staff Reports 849, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Andreza A Palma, 2016. "Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1306-1314.
    3. Adonias Evaristo da Costa Filho, 2017. "What Drives Long Term Real Interest Rates in Brazil?," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 14(6), pages 624-635, November.
    4. Alberto Ronchi Neto & Osvaldo Candido, 2020. "Measuring the neutral real interest rate in Brazil: a semi-structural open economy framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 651-667, February.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Mexico: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/360, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2014. "Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2014/084, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Luis Ceballos & Jorge A. Fornero & Andrés Gatty, 2017. "Nuevas estimaciones de la tasa real neutral de Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 120-143, December.
    8. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Gómez, Marcos & Medina, Juan Pablo & Valenzuela, Gonzalo, 2019. "Unveiling the objectives of central banks: Tales of four Latin American countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 81-100.
    10. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/288, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Alejandro M. Werner, 2016. "Central Banking in Latin America: The Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2016/197, International Monetary Fund.

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