[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-292.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Waikei R Lam
  • Kiichi Tokuoka
Abstract
Despite the rise in public debt, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained low and stable, supported by steady inflows from the household and corporate sectors, high domestic ownership of JGBs, and safe-haven flows from heightened sovereign risks in Europe. Over time, however, the market's capacity to absorb new debt will likely shrink as population ages and risk appetite recovers. In the short term, a decline in fund supply from the corporate sector, where financial surpluses are abnormally high, and spillovers from global financial distress could push up JGB yields. Fiscal reforms to reduce public debt more quickly and lengthen the maturity of government bonds will help limit these risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Waikei R Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2011. "Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market," IMF Working Papers 2011/292, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/292
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25435
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
    2. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    3. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Bangladesh: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/314, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2010. "The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt," IMF Working Papers 2010/019, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni, 2011. "Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields," IMF Working Papers 2011/210, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Chile: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/260, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe [‘Computing robust standard errors for within-group estimators’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 444-489.
    10. Miguel A. Segoviano, 2006. "Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks: Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments," IMF Working Papers 2006/283, International Monetary Fund.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Dominica: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/324, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tanweer Akram, 2016. "Japan's Liquidity Trap," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_862, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Schmelzing, Paul, 2017. "Staff Working Paper No. 686: Eight centuries of the risk-free rate: bond market reversals from the Venetians to the ‘VaR shock’," Bank of England working papers 686, Bank of England.
    3. Zlatuse Komarkova & Vilma Dingova & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Fiscal sustainability and financial stability," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2012/2013, chapter 0, pages 103-112, Czech National Bank.
    4. Azis Iwan J. & Mitra Sabyasachi & Baluga Anthony, 2013. "Global Shock and Regional Spillovers," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 183-211, August.
    5. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2018. "Australian Government Bonds' Nominal Yields: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_910, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2016. "The Empirics of Long-Term US Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_863, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Evelyne Dourille-Feer, 2012. "Les dessous de la dette publique japonaise," Working Papers 2012-29, CEPII research center.
    9. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2015. "Does Keynesian Theory Explain Indian Government Bond Yields?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_834, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2014. "The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_818, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Mislav Brkic, 2016. "Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes, Fiscal Adjustment Programs and Lessons for Croatia," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 71-99, June.
    12. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Long-run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_881, Levy Economics Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Waikei Raphael Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2013. "Assessing The Risks To The Japanese Government Bond Market," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-15.
    2. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/197, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Elsa Fornero, 2015. "Economic-financial Literacy and (Sustainable) Pension Reforms: Why the Former is a Key Ingredient for the Latter," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 134, pages 6-16, January-F.
    4. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Luisa Charry & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/197, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Okuda, Hidenobu & 奥田, 英信 & Poleng, Chea & Aiba, Daiju & 相場, 大樹, 2014. "Operational Efficiency and TFP Change of Major Cambodian Financial Institutions:A Data Envelopment Analysis during the 2006-2011 Period," Discussion Papers 2014-02, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Fabian Bornhorst & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 2012/239, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Sofronis Clerides, 2014. "The Collapse of the Cypriot Banking System: A Bird’s Eye View," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(2), pages 3-35, December.
    8. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    9. Daniela Schwarzer, 2015. "Building the euro area's debt crisis management capacity with the IMF," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 599-625, June.
    10. Andrés, Javier & Arce, Óscar & Thomas, Carlos, 2017. "Structural reforms in a debt overhang," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 15-34.
    11. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Qiaoluan H. Li & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses," IMF Working Papers 2018/049, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.
    13. Hend Al-Sheikh & S. Nuri Erbas, 2012. "The Oil Curse and Labor Markets: The Case of Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 697, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    14. Cunha, Nuno. & Pellerano, Luca. & Mueller, Johannes. & Lledo, Victor. & Xiao, Yuan. & Gitton, Patrick., 2013. "Towards a Mozambican social protection floor : consolidating a comprehensive social protection system in Mozambique: analysis of policy alternatives and costs," ILO Working Papers 994838493402676, International Labour Organization.
    15. Sriram Balasubramanian & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2019. "Gross National Happiness and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan," IMF Working Papers 2019/015, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Ilham Haouas & Raimundo Soto, 2012. "Has the UAE Escaped the Oil Curse?," Documentos de Trabajo 412, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    17. International Labour Office & International Institute for Labour Studies, 2011. "Tunisia : a new social contract for fair and equitable growth," Studies on Growth with Equity 467060, International Labour Office, Research Department.
    18. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik & Katerina Smidkova, 2013. "Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?," Working Papers 2013/03, Czech National Bank.
    19. Jean-Pierre Andre, 2011. "Economic Imbalances: New Zealand's Structural Challenge," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/03, New Zealand Treasury.
    20. Bornhorst, Fabian & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Test of the German resilience," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/292. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.