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Boosting Fiscal Space: The Roles of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  • Mr. Jun I Kim
Abstract
Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Jun I Kim, 2018. "Boosting Fiscal Space: The Roles of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2018/004, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfdps:2018/004
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    Cited by:

    1. Yannick Kitutila W., 2024. "Estimation of the public debt threshold effects on economic growth in sub‐Saharan African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 377-390, June.
    2. Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
    3. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Emter, Lorenz & Herzberg, Valerie, 2018. "The rationale for GDP-linked bonds for the euro area," Economic Letters 10/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Yongo Kwon, 2019. "Nominal GDP growth indexed bonds: Business Cycle and Welfare Effects within the Framework of New Keynesian DSGE model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 504, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Kalamov, Zarko Y. & Zimmermann, Karl J., 2023. "GDP-linked bonds and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Yasin Kursat Onder, 2023. "Optimal GDP-indexed Bonds," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 747-777, December.
    8. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DPPP; DP; default risk; interest rate; long-term debt; fiscal policy; risk neutrality; debt contract; short-term debt; debt limits of the GDP-linked bond; expected return; debt duration; debt-stabilizing effect; Fiscal space; Debt limits; Fiscal stance; Debt default; Debt service; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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