[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/wpaper/wp10-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

US Trade and Wages: The Misleading Implications of Conventional Trade Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Z. Lawrence

    (Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government)

  • Lawrence Edward

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract
Conventional trade theory, which combines the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, implies that expanded trade between developed and developing countries will increase wage equality in the former. This theory is widely applied. It serves as the basis for estimating the impact of trade on wages using two-sector simulation models and the net factor content of trade. It leads naturally to the presumption that the rapid growth and declining relative prices of US manufactured imports from developing countries since the 1990s have been a powerful source of increased US wage inequality. In this study we present evidence that suggests the presumption is not warranted. We highlight the sensitivity of conventional theory to the assumption of incomplete specialization and find evidence that is not consistent with it. Since 1987, although US domestic relative effective prices in industries with relatively high shares of manufactured goods imports from developing countries have declined, effective unskilled worker-weighted prices have actually risen relative to skilled worker-weighted prices. If anything, this suggests pressures for increased wage equality. Also in apparent contradiction to theory, the (six-digit North American Industry Classification System [NAICS]) US manufacturing industries with high shares of manufactured imports from developing countries are actually more skill intensive than the industries with high shares of imports from developed countries. Finally, applying a two-stage regression procedure, we find that developing-country import price changes have not mandated increased US wage inequality. While these results conflict with standard theory, they are easily explained if the United States and developing countries have specialized in products and tasks that are highly imperfect substitutes. If this is the case, the impact of increased trade with developing countries on US wage inequality is far more muted than standard theory suggests. Also methodologies such as the net factor content of trade using US production coefficients and simulation models assuming perfect substitution between imports and domestic products could be highly misleading.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edward, 2010. "US Trade and Wages: The Misleading Implications of Conventional Trade Theory," Working Paper Series WP10-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp10-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/us-trade-and-wages-misleading-implications-conventional-trade-theory
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "The Impact of Outsourcing and High-Technology Capital on Wages: Estimates For the United States, 1979–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 907-940.
    2. Adrian Wood, 1997. "How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jitendralal Borkakoti & Chris Milner (ed.), International Trade and Labour Markets, chapter 7, pages 140-168, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Mayda, Anna Maria & Rodrik, Dani, 2005. "Why are some people (and countries) more protectionist than others?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1393-1430, August.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1995. "Foreign Investment, Outsourcing and Relative Wages," NBER Working Papers 5121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jonathan E. Haskel & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2003. "Have Falling Tariffs and Transportation Costs Raised US Wage Inequality?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 630-650, September.
    6. Haskel, Jonathan & Slaughter, Matthew J, 2001. "Trade, Technology and U.K. Wage Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(468), pages 163-187, January.
    7. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    8. Justin Pierce & Peter Schott, 2009. "Concording U.S. Harmonized System Categories Over Time," Working Papers 09-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    10. Wood, Adrian, 1995. "North-South Trade, Employment and Inequality: Changing Fortunes in a Skill-Driven World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290155.
    11. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert W. STAIGER, 2011. "An Interpretation Of The Factor Content Of Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 38, pages 531-545, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
    13. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2013. "Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 5003, April.
    14. Peter K. Schott, 2003. "One Size Fits All? Heckscher-Ohlin Specialization in Global Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 686-708, June.
    15. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 31-66.
    16. Henry Thompson, 2016. "Tariffs and Wages in Trade Theory," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 399-405, May.
    17. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2011. "Multiproduct Firms and Trade Liberalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(3), pages 1271-1318.
    18. Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Peter K. Schott, 2002. "U.S. Imports, Exports, and Tariff Data, 1989-2001," NBER Working Papers 9387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "Long-Run Changes in the Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 135-168.
    20. Paul R. Krugman, 2008. "Trade and Wages, Reconsidered," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 103-154.
    21. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 647-678.
    22. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Howard J. Shatz, 1994. "Trade and Jobs in Manufacturing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 1-84.
    23. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    24. Lisandro Abrego & John Whalley, 2000. "Demand Side Considerations and the Trade and Wages Debate," NBER Working Papers 7674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2008. "Blue-Collar Blues: Is Trade to Blame for Rising US Income Inequality?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa85, April.
    26. Hakura, D. & Deardorff, A.V., 1993. "Trade and Wages: What Are the Questions?," Working Papers 341, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    27. Richard B. Freeman, 1995. "Are Your Wages Set in Beijing?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 15-32, Summer.
    28. Robert Z. Lawrence & Matthew J. Slaughter, 1993. "International Trade and American Wages in the 1980s: Giant Sucking Sound or Small Hiccup?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2 Microec), pages 161-226.
    29. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1996. "Book Review: Labor Economics: North-South Trade, Employment, and Inequality: Changing Fortunes in a Skill-Driven World," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 49(3), pages 567-569, April.
    30. Gordon H. Hanson & Robert C. Feenstra, 2000. "Aggregation Bias in the Factor Content of Trade: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 155-160, May.
    31. William R. Cline, 1997. "Trade and Income Distribution," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 58, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edward, 2010. "Do Developed and Developing Countries Compete Head to Head in High Tech?," Working Paper Series WP10-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Davide Consoli & Francesco Vona & Francesco Rentocchini, 2016. "That was then, this is now: skills and routinization in the 2000s," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(5), pages 847-866.
    3. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi, 2015. "Trade Shocks and Labour Adjustment: Evidence from Pakistan’s Manufacturing Industries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 197-214.
    4. Florentina Viorica GHEORGHE, 2016. "External trade – key element of national economy evolution under sustainable development circumstances," Eco-Economics Review, Ecological University of Bucharest, Economics Faculty and Ecology and Environmental Protection Faculty, vol. 2(1), pages 3-17, June.
    5. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2013. "International Trade and Local Labor Markets: Are Foreign and Domestic Shocks Created Differently?," MPRA Paper 53407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chen, Bo, 2017. "Upstreamness, exports, and wage inequality: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 66-74.
    8. Alberto Posso, 2013. "Enter the Dragon: Have Imports from China Hurt Wages in Manufacturing?," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 307-321, September.
    9. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2017. "International trade and local labor markets: Do foreign and domestic shocks affect regions differently?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 375-409.
    10. Robert Z. Lawrence & Tyler Moran, 2016. "Adjustment and Income Distribution Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Working Paper Series WP16-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2013. "Association of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World : The Role of Trade," Development Economics Working Papers 23409, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2ajduu0gqt9ho8h2tavbin6ops is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz & Aleksandra Parteka, 2018. "The effects of offshoring to low-wage countries on domestic wages: a worldwide industrial analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 129-163, February.
    14. Haas, Levi & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R., 2019. "International Trade: Smarten up to talk the talk," MPRA Paper 99096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kaveri Deb & William R. Hauk, 2020. "The Impact of Chinese Imports on Indian Wage Inequality," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 63(2), pages 267-290, June.
    16. Gheorghe Zaman & Zizi Goschin, 2016. "Regional Patterns Of Romanian Foreign Trade In The Aftermath Of The Economic Crisis," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 230-239, July.
    17. Susan Stone & Ricardo H. Cavazos Cepeda, 2011. "Wage Implications of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence for Effective Policy Formation," OECD Trade Policy Papers 122, OECD Publishing.
    18. Nathalie Chusseau & Michel Dumont, 2012. "Growing Income Inequalities in Advanced," Working Papers hal-00993359, HAL.
    19. Nathalie Chusseau & Michel Dumont, 2013. "Growing Income Inequalities in Advanced Countries," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Joël Hellier & Nathalie Chusseau (ed.), Growing Income Inequalities, chapter 1, pages 13-47, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Gagliardi, Luisa & Iammarino, Simona & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2015. "Offshoring and the geography of jobs in Great Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65018, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Ewa Mińska‐Struzik, 2014. "Rozważania nad aktualnością tradycyjnej teorii handlu międzynarodowego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 73-95.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2ajduu0gqt9ho8h2tavbin6ops is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Gheorghe Zaman & Florentina-Viorica Gheorghe & Artur-Emilian Simion, 2016. "Some Characteristics Of Romania’S External Trade In The Period 1990-2014," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 207-229, July.
    24. Mendez, Oscar, 2015. "The effect of Chinese import competition on Mexican local labor markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 364-380.
    25. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2012. "A monetary model of China–US trade relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 233-238.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edward, 2010. "US Trade and Wages: The Misleading Implications of Conventional Trade Theory," Working Paper Series WP10-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Jorge Saba Arbache, 2001. "Trade Liberalisation and Labor Markets in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence," Studies in Economics 0112, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edward, 2010. "Do Developed and Developing Countries Compete Head to Head in High Tech?," Working Paper Series WP10-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Thomas Kemeny & David Rigby, 2012. "Trading away what kind of jobs? Globalization, trade and tasks in the US economy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(1), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Robert Feenstra & Gordon Hanson, 2001. "Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Atolia, Manoj & Kurokawa, Yoshinori, 2016. "The impact of trade margins on the skill premium: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 895-915.
    7. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2215-2288 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Paul Segerstrom & Elias Dinopoulos, 1999. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 450-472, June.
    9. Ariel Burstein & Jonathan Vogel, 2010. "Globalization, Technology, and the Skill Premium: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 16459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Tiago Pereira, 2016. "The effect of developing countries' competition on regional labour markets in Portugal," GEE Papers 0058, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2016.
    11. Rotunno, Lorenzo & Wood, Adrian, 2020. "Wage inequality and skill supplies in a globalised world," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 529-547.
    12. Asep Suryahadi & Paul Chen & Rod Tyers, . "Openness, Technological Change and Labor Demand in Pre-Crisis Indonesia," Journal Article, Publications Department.
    13. Lorenzo Rotunno & Adrian Wood, 2015. "Wages and endowments in a globalised world," Economics Papers 2015-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. Nahuis, R., 1997. "On Globalisation, Trade and Wages," Research Memorandum 747, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Eva Katalin Polgar & Julia Woerz, 2011. "Trade With Central and Eastern Europe: Is It Really a Threat to Wages in the West?," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 1-31, March.
    16. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan & Shannon Phillips, 2022. "Estimating The Impact Of Trade And Offshoring On American Workers Using The Current Population Surveys," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 12, pages 275-289, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2013. "Association of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World : The Role of Trade," Development Economics Working Papers 23409, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Thomas Kemeny & David Rigby & Abigail Cooke, 2015. "Cheap Imports and the Loss of US Manufacturing Jobs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1555-1573, October.
    19. Susan Stone & Ricardo H. Cavazos Cepeda, 2011. "Wage Implications of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence for Effective Policy Formation," OECD Trade Policy Papers 122, OECD Publishing.
    20. Nathalie Chusseau & Michel Dumont & Joël Hellier, 2008. "Explaining Rising Inequality: Skill‐Biased Technical Change And North–South Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 409-457, July.
    21. Johannes Fedderke & Yongcheol Shin & Prabhat Vaze, 2003. "Trade, Technology and Wage Inequality in the South African Manufacturing Sectors," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 106, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wages; Trade Theory;

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp10-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peterson Institute webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.