[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/idb/brikps/6878.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Poverty, Vulnerability and the Middle Class in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Stampini, Marco
  • Robles, Marcos
  • Sáenz, Mayra
  • Ibarrarán, Pablo
  • Medellín, Nadin
Abstract
Between 2000 and 2013, Latin America has considerably reduced poverty (from 46.3% to 29.7% of the population). In this paper, we use synthetic panels to show that, despite progress, the region remains characterized by substantial vulnerability that also affects the rising middle-class. More specifically, we find that 65% of those with daily income between $4 and 10, and 14% of those in the middle-class, experience poverty at least once over a ten-year period. Furthermore, chronic poverty remains widespread (representing 91% and 50% of extreme and moderate poverty respectively). Differences between rural and urban areas are substantial. Urban areas, which are now home to most moderate poor and vulnerable, are characterized by higher income mobility, particularly upward mobility. These findings have important implications for the design of effective social safety nets. These need to mix long term interventions for the chronic poor, especially in rural areas, with flexible short-term support to a large group of transient poor and vulnerable, particularly in urban areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Stampini, Marco & Robles, Marcos & Sáenz, Mayra & Ibarrarán, Pablo & Medellín, Nadin, 2015. "Poverty, Vulnerability and the Middle Class in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6878, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:6878
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Poverty-Vulnerability-and-the-Middle-Class-in-Latin-America.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    2. David Satterthwaite, 2010. "Urban Myths and the Mis-use of Data that Underpin Them," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-028, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Gary S. Field & Robert Duval Hernandez & Samuel Freije & Maria Laura Sanchez Puerta, 2007. "Intragenerational Income Mobility in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 101-154, January.
    4. Hulme, David & Shepherd, Andrew, 2003. "Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 403-423, March.
    5. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
    6. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
    7. Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Marcos Robles, 2017. "Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(22), pages 2141-2152, May.
    8. Stefan Dercon & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2007. "Moving On, Staying Behind, Getting Lost: Lessons on poverty mobility from longitudinal data," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-075, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    10. Satterthwaite, David, 2010. "Urban Myths and the Mis-use of Data that Underpin them," WIDER Working Paper Series 028, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. World Bank, "undated". "Social Gains in the Balance : A Fiscal Policy Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean [Ganancias sociales en la balanza : un desafio de la politica fiscal para América Latina y el Caribe]," World Bank Publications - Reports 17198, The World Bank Group.
    12. Bourguignon, Francois & Goh, Chor-ching & Kim, Dae Il, 2004. "Estimating individual vulnerability to poverty with pseudo-panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3375, The World Bank.
    13. Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Julian Messina & Jamele Rigolini & Luis-Felipe López-Calva & Maria Ana Lugo & Renos Vakis, 2013. "Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class [La movilidad económica y el crecimiento de la clase media en América Latina]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11858.
    14. Cruces, Guillermo & Lanjouw, Peter & Lucchetti, Leonardo & Perova, Elizaveta & Vakis, Renos & Viollaz, Mariana, 2011. "Intra-generational mobility and repeated cross-sections : a three-country validation exercise," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5916, The World Bank.
    15. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Transient Poverty in Postreform Rural China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 338-357, June.
    16. Beall, Jo & Guha-Khasnobis, Basudeb & Kanbur, Ravi (ed.), 2010. "Urbanization and Development: Multidisciplinary Perspectives," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199590148.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diego Winkelried & Bruno Escobar, 2022. "Declining inequality in Latin America? Robustness checks for Peru," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(1), pages 223-243, March.
    2. Marcela Ibanez & Sebastian O. Schneider, 2023. "Income Risk, Precautionary Saving, and Loss Aversion – An Empirical Test," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2023_06, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    3. Prieto Suarez, Joaquin, 2023. "Degrees of vulnerability to poverty: a low-income dynamics approach for Chile," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121993, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Acevedo, Ivonne & Castellani, Francesca & Cota, María José & Lotti, Giulia & Székely, Miguel, 2022. "Higher Inequality in Latin America: A Collateral Effect of the Pandemic," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 11937, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Sehnbruch, Kirsten & González, Pablo & Apablaza, Mauricio & Méndez, Rocío & Arriagada, Verónica, 2020. "The Quality of Employment (QoE) in nine Latin American countries: A multidimensional perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Marcela Ibanez & Sebastian O. Schneider, 2021. "Income Risk, Precautionary Saving, and Loss Aversion – An Empirical Test," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2021_06, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    7. Nelson R. Ramírez- Rondán & Marco E. Terrones & Diego Winkelried, 2020. "Equalizing growth: The case of Peru," Working Papers 176, Peruvian Economic Association.
    8. María Edo & Walter Sosa Escudero & Marcela Svarc, 2021. "A multidimensional approach to measuring the middle class," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(1), pages 139-162, March.
    9. Sébastien CARRERE & Matthieu CLEMENT & François COMBARNOUS & Gabriel KESSLER & Eric ROUGIER & Ariel WILKIS, 2022. "The middle class in Argentina: dynamics, characteristics and implications for public policies," Working Paper 83de5468-cd86-4702-a4a8-6, Agence française de développement.
    10. Joaquín Prieto, 2024. "Degrees of vulnerability to poverty: A low-income dynamics approach for Chile," Working Papers 666, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    11. Werner Peña, 2017. "What are the determinants of chronic and transient poverty in El Salvador?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 112017, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    12. María José Roa & Ignacio Garrón & Jonathan Barboza, 2018. "The Role of Cognitive Characteristics, Personality Traits, and Financial Literacy in Financial Decision Making," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: María José Roa García & Diana Mejía (ed.), Financial Decisions of Households and Financial Inclusion: Evidence for Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 193-244, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    13. Jean-Philippe Berrou & Matthieu Clément & François Combarnous & Dominique Darbon & Yves-André Faure & Eric Rougier, 2019. "L’essor des classes moyennes dans les pays en développement et émergents : une étude comparative des enjeux d’identification, de caractérisation et de politiques publiques," Working Papers hal-02147531, HAL.
    14. Lyons, Angela C. & Kass-Hanna, Josephine & Fava, Ana, 2022. "Fintech development and savings, borrowing, and remittances: A comparative study of emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Himanshu & Peter Lanjouw, 2020. "Income mobility in the developing world: Recent approaches and evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Marco Stampini & Marcos Robles & Mayra Sáenz & Pablo Ibarrarán & Nadin Medellín, 2016. "Poverty, vulnerability, and the middle class in Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-44, December.
    3. Lanjouw Peter, 2020. "Income mobility in the developing world: Recent approaches and evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Perez, Victor, 2015. "Moving in and out of poverty in Mexico: What can we learn from pseudo-panel methods?," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-16, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Rodrigo Carrillo Valles & Patricia Lopez Rodriguez & Isidro Soloaga, 2020. "Dinamicas de pobreza en Mexico, 2008-2018," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 17(2), pages 7-32, Julio-Dic.
    6. François Bourguignon & A. Hector Moreno M., 2020. "On synthetic income panels," Working Papers halshs-01988068, HAL.
    7. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1838-1868, November.
    8. Nicolas Hérault & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2019. "How valid are synthetic panel estimates of poverty dynamics?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(1), pages 51-76, March.
    9. Purwono, Rudi & Wardana, Wahyu Wisnu & Haryanto, Tri & Khoerul Mubin, M., 2021. "Poverty dynamics in Indonesia: empirical evidence from three main approaches," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    10. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    11. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw, 2018. "Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012: Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 131-170.
    12. Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado, 2007. "Distinguishing Chronic Poverty from Transient Poverty in Brazil: Developing a Model for Pseudo-Panel Data," Working Papers 36, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    13. Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado & André Braz Golgher, 2006. "Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td290, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    14. Erika Pesántez, 2014. "Análisis de movilidad social en el Ecuador," Analítika, Analítika - Revista de Análisis Estadístico/Journal of Statistical Analysis, vol. 8(2), pages 53-68, Diciembre.
    15. Duclos, Jean-Yves & Araar, Abdelkrim & Giles, John, 2010. "Chronic and transient poverty: Measurement and estimation, with evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 266-277, March.
    16. Hai‐Anh Dang & Dean Jolliffe & Calogero Carletto, 2019. "Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, And Data Imputation: A Review Of Poverty Measurement Methods For Data‐Scarce Environments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 757-797, July.
    17. Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Marcos Robles, 2017. "Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(22), pages 2141-2152, May.
    18. Takashi Kurosaki, 2006. "The measurement of transient poverty: Theory and application to Pakistan," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(3), pages 325-345, December.
    19. Evans Tindana Awuni & Daniele Malerba & Babette Never, 2023. "Understanding Vulnerability to Poverty, COVID-19’s Effects, and Implications for Social Protection: Insights from Ghana," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 23(3), pages 246-274, July.
    20. Ivan Turok, 2013. "Securing the resurgence of African cities," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 28(2), pages 142-157, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latin America; Mobility; Middle-class; Transitory and chronic poverty; Vulnerability; Poverty dynamics; Panel data; Synthetic panels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:6878. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Felipe Herrera Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iadbbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.