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Impact of African Swine Fever on US and World Commodity Markets

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Abstract
Recent outbreaks of African Swine Fever in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, South Korea, and especially China, have generated interest in how world commodity markets will adjust in response to pig herd losses due to the disease and to panic culling to avoid the negative impacts of the disease. This adjustment is complicated by the retaliatory duties that China has placed on US soybean and pork exports and the duration of temporary exemptions on these tariffs. It is clear that a scarcity of pork will cause a reduction in pork consumption in impacted countries and a switch to alternative proteins. It is also clear that countries (such as the European Union and Brazil) who have direct access to China's pork and chicken markets will see an increase in exports. What is less clear is the second-round impact of these adjustments. Will the United States ship more pork to markets vacated by the European Union and Brazil as these countries pursue lucrative markets in China? What is the net impact on US and world soybean and corn exports and prices? What would be the implications for the United States if China removes retaliatory duties?

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Dermot J. Hayes & Wendong Zhang, 2019. "Impact of African Swine Fever on US and World Commodity Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-fall-2019-4, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:apr-fall-2019-4
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    File URL: https://www.card.iastate.edu/ag_policy_review/article/?a=101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastien Pouliot & Bruce A. Babcock, 2015. "How Much Ethanol Can Be Consumed in E85?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 15-bp54, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Sébastien Pouliot & Kenneth A Liao & Bruce A Babcock, 2018. "Estimating Willingness to Pay for E85 in the United States Using an Intercept Survey of Flex Motorists," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1486-1509.
    3. Gabriel E. Lade, 2018. "Testimony Before the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 18-pb24, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary D. Schnitkey & Nicholas D. Paulson & Scott H. Irwin & Jonathan Coppess & Bruce J. Sherrick & Krista J. Swanson & Carl R. Zulauf & Todd Hubbs, 2021. "Coronavirus Impacts on Midwestern Row‐Crop Agriculture," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 280-291, March.
    2. Amani Elobeid & Miguel Carriquiry & Jerome Dumortier & David Swenson & Dermot J. Hayes, 2021. "China‐U.S. trade dispute and its impact on global agricultural markets, the U.S. economy, and greenhouse gas emissions," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 647-672, September.
    3. Lin, Wen & Ma, Baojie & Liang, Jiangyuan & Jin, Shaosheng, 2024. "Price response to government disclosure of food safety information in developing markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

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