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Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation

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We develop an estimator of unreported income, perhaps due to tax evasion, that does not depend on as strict identifying assumptions as previous estimators based on microeconomic data. The standard identifying assumption that the self-employed underreport income whereas wage and salary workers do not is likely to fail in countries where employees are often paid under the table or engage in corrupt activities. Assuming that evading individuals have a higher consumption-income gap than non-evading ones due underreporting both to tax authorities and in surveys, an endogenous switching model with unknown sample separation enables the estimation of consumption-income gaps for both underreporting and truthful households. This avoids the need to identify non-evading and evading groups exante. This methodology is applied to data from Czech and Slovak household budget surveys and shows that estimated evasion is substantially higher than found using previous methodologies.

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  • Tomas Lichard & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2012. "Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 438, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:438
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanousek, Jan & Lichard, Tomáš & Torosyan, Karine, 2016. "‘Flattening’ the Tax Evasion: Evidence from the Post-Communist Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Konrad Dymarski, 2013. "Segmentacja populacji a szacowany rozmiar szarej strefy," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 133-155.
    3. Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "Restricting or Abolishing Cash: An Effective Instrument for Fighting the Shadow Economy, Crime and Terrorism?," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162914, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Friedrich Schneider, 2023. "Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of Nonobserved or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 257-277, October.
    5. Piotr Dybka & Michał Kowalczuk & Bartosz Olesiński & Andrzej Torój & Marek Rozkrut, 2019. "Currency demand and MIMIC models: towards a structured hybrid method of measuring the shadow economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 4-40, February.
    6. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek & Tomáš Lichard & Karine Torosyan, 2019. "‘Flattening’ tax evasion? : Evidence from the post‐communist natural experiment," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 27(1), pages 223-246, January.
    7. Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "Implausible Large Differences in the Sizes of Underground Economies in Highly Developed European Countries? A Comparison of Different Estimation Methods," CESifo Working Paper Series 6522, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy; switch regression; income-consumption gap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • J39 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Other

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