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Determinants of Childbirth in Russia: A Micro-Data Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kazuhiro Kumo
Abstract
This paper uses the micro-data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to identify factors that explain fertility between 1995 and 2004. An overview of nationwide birth dynamics in post-Soviet Russia shows that not only do changes in economic conditions move in lockstep with the overall birth rate trend, as has been pointed out by numerous researchers, but so too do proximate determinants of fertility, and suggests that rises and falls in the total fertility rate in Russia are also affected by factors such as demographic timing effects. Although few studies employing micro data have been conducted, it is frequently argued that the shrinking of the economy during the transition to the market economy was the reason for the decline in the birth rate. However, many demographic researchers and sociologists, particularly in Russia itself, attribute the drop in the country fs birth rate from the 1990s to the long-term population trend, a view that also has widespread acceptance. While the previous studies all used fertility data up to 2001, this paper analyses data up to 2004, which is significant as the birth rate has shown a sustained rise since 2001. It was shown that household income levels do not have a significant impact on birth probability, and this may indicate the possibility that economic growth did not lead directly to the recovery in the birth rate. This suggests that social conditions in the broad sense may have caused the birth rate to rise. Finally, the paper examines, from a demographic perspective, the measures to encourage couples to have children that were introduced in the last days of the Putin Administration, which ended in May 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuhiro Kumo, 2009. "Determinants of Childbirth in Russia: A Micro-Data Approach," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-104, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd09-104
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    File URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2008/pdf/gd09-104.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kumo, Kazuhiro & Morinaga, Takako & Shida, Yoshisada, 2008. "Long‐term Population Statistics of Russia, 1867-2002," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 59(1), pages 74-93, January.
    2. Louise Grogan, 2006. "An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 363-397.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2002. "Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 233-262, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazuhiro Kumo, 2012. "Tajik labor migrants and their international money transfers," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 285-301.
    2. KUMO, Kazuhiro & 雲, 和広, 2020. "Fertility in Russia: A Re-examination Using Microdata," CEI Working Paper Series 2020-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Aliaksandr Amialchuk & Maksim Yemelyanau & Katerina Lisenkova & Mykhaylo Salnykov, 2011. "Economic Determinants of Fertility in Belarus: a Micro-Data Analysis," BEROC Working Paper Series 13, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

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