(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hoh/hohdip/250.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach

Author

Listed:
Abstract
This study examines the long-run relationship between monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany. For this purpose, cointegration is tested for between both variables in the period 1974 to 2003. However, problems related to spurious regression arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used, from mutual causation between the variables and from the lack of a long-run relationship among the variables of the model. These problems are addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition to a more standard long-run structural modelling approach. In principle, both procedures are capable of dealing with the controversial issue of the exogeneity of monetary policy vis-a-vis dividend growth. However, the structural modelling approach still leaves a certain degree of uncertainty about the integration properties of the interest rate and the dividend growth. Hence, one feels legitimized to refer to the bounds testing procedure and to conclude that in the longer term short-term rates drive stock returns but not vice versa.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 250/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/RePEc/hoh/papers/250.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    3. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    6. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles, and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 43-84, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ricardo Faria, Joao & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel, 2003. "Testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect: Implications for growth and the PPP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 241-253, June.
    8. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T. & Werner, Thomas, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank React to Stock Price Movements?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    13. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Testing long-run neutrality: Empirical evidence for G7-countries with special emphasis on Germany A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 119-125, December.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    15. J. Benson Durham, 2003. "Does monetary policy affect stock prices and Treasury yields? An error correction and simultaneous equation approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. repec:crs:wpaper:9645 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Tuck Cheong Tang & Mahendhiran Nair, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of Malaysian import demand function: reassessment from the bounds test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 293-296.
    19. Muhammad Islam, 2004. "The long run relationship between openness and government size: evidence from bounds test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 995-1000.
    20. Bill Dupor & Timothy Conley, 2004. "The Fed Response to Equity Prices and Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 24-28, May.
    21. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1063-1071.
    22. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Dead man walking: an empirical reassessment of the deterrent effect of capital punishment using the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 1975-1989.
    23. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2003. "Attendance and pricing at sporting events: empirical results from Granger Causality Tests for the Melbourne Cup," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(15), pages 1649-1657.
    24. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
    25. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
    26. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Asset Prices, Financial Instability, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 14-18, May.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    28. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1131-1147, October.
    29. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2002. "Demand for M3 and expenditure components in Malaysia: assessment from bounds testing approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 721-725.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belke Ansgar, 2010. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise – Ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland / Money, Credit and House Prices – An ARDL-Approach for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(2), pages 138-162, April.
    2. Samuel Yeboah Asuamah & Joseph Ohene-Manu, 2015. "An Econometric Investigation of the Determinants of Fossil Fuel Consumption: A Multivariate Approach for Ghana," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 32-43.
    3. Anders, Sven & Fedoseeva, Svetlana, 2017. "Quality, Sourcing, and Asymmetric Exchange-Rate Pass-Through into U.S. Coffee Imports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(3), September.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Ansgar Belke, 2009. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise: ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 953, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Fedoseeva, Svetlana, 2013. "Do German exporters PTM? Searching for right answers in sugar confectionery exports," Discussion Papers 62, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    7. Mohammad Mirbagherijam, 2014. "Asymmetric Effect of Inflation on Dividend Policy of Iran's Stocks Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 337-350, February.
    8. González-Gómez, Manuel & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad, 2013. "Estimating the long-run impact of forest fires on the eucalyptus timber supply in Galicia, Spain," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 149-161.
    9. Manuel González-Gómez, 2022. "European outbound tourism expansion on the islands of Cape Verde," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 1129-1150, June.
    10. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.
    11. Fedoseeva Svetlana, 2013. "(A)symmetry, (Non)linearity and Hysteresis of Pricing-To-Market: Evidence from German Sugar Confectionery Exports," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 69-85, January.
    12. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Monetary policy and stock returns under the MPC and inflation targeting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 109-116.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    2. Elsadig Musa Ahmed & Geeta Krishnasamy, 2012. "Telecommunications investment and economic growth in ASEAN5: An assessment from UECM," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 315-332, December.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Dividend Yields for Forecasting Stock Market Returns. An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 9(1), pages 86-116, Summer.
    5. Hwang, Jen-Te & Wen, Min, 2024. "Electronic payments and money demand in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 47-64.
    6. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2003. "Attendance and pricing at sporting events: empirical results from Granger Causality Tests for the Melbourne Cup," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(15), pages 1649-1657.
    9. Kenneth Kuttner, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility: Should We Refill the Bernanke-Gertler Prescription?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-04, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jun 2011.
    10. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    11. J. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Marcelo Ochoa C., 2007. "Política Monetaria, Precios de Activos y Estabilidad Financiera: Una Revisión de la Literatura," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 115-127, December.
    12. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Fiji. An Empirical Assessment Using the ARDL Approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 96-115.
    13. Thampanya, Natthinee & Wu, Junjie & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Liu, Jia, 2020. "Fundamental and behavioural determinants of stock return volatility in ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee Wooi, 2003. "On Volatility Spillovers and Dominant Effects in East Asian: Before and After the 911," MPRA Paper 2032, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    16. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.
    17. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    18. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    20. José Mauricio Gil León, 2015. "Relación entre política monetaria y estabilidad financiera: un análisis aplicado para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(77), pages 133-148, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ulrike Berberich (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivhohde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.