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年金改革の選択肢, Policy Options for the Pension Reform in Japan

Author

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  • 白石, 浩介
  • Shiraishi, Kousuke
  • シライシ, コウスケ
Abstract
公的年金の制度改革案として有力視される基礎年金の税方式化とスウェーデン方式の導入に関して、ダイナミック・マイクロシミュレーション技法を年金分野に応用したPENMODモデルを用いて実証分析を行った。基礎年金の税方式化に際しては二重の負担問題が発生するが、本研究によると移行コストは向こう40年間において消費税率換算で各年3％前後である。税負担の軽減策としては、高所得者に対する基礎年金の支給額を削減するクローバック制の導入が考えられるが、抑制効果はそれほど大きくなく最大でも7％程度に留まる。スウェーデン方式に関して、わが国おいてよく言われる制度条件を用いて政策シミュレーションを行ったところ、年金支給総額は現行制度に同水準でありスウェーデン方式の導入が全くの不可能事ではないことが示唆される。新制度への移行期間中は最低保障年金の受け取り額の増加は古い世代よりは若い世代の方が多くなるので、わが国おける世代間格差の縮小に寄与する。

Suggested Citation

  • 白石, 浩介 & Shiraishi, Kousuke & シライシ, コウスケ, 2009. "年金改革の選択肢, Policy Options for the Pension Reform in Japan," PIE/CIS Discussion Paper 421, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:piecis:421
    Note: 2009年3月
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