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The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy

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  • EO, Yunjong
  • LIE, Denny
Abstract
How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push type shocks which create a trade-o↵ between inflation and output gap stabilization. We show that this trade-o↵ leads to a non-trivial welfare cost under a standard Taylor rule, even with optimized policy coefficients. We then propose an additional policy tool of an inflation target rule and find that the optimal target needs to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor rule, significantly reduces fluctuations in inflation originating from the cost-push shocks and mitigates the policy trade-o↵, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy. The welfare implications of the inflation target rule are more pronounced under a flatter Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • EO, Yunjong & LIE, Denny, 2017. "The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-58, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Denny Lie, 2019. "Observed Inflation‐target Adjustments in an Estimated DSGE Model for Indonesia: Do They Matter for Aggregate Fluctuations?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 38(4), pages 261-285, December.
    2. Eo, Yunjong & Lie, Denny, 2018. "Changes in the Inflation Target and the Comovement between Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate," Working Papers 2018-02, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised May 2020.
    3. Eo, Yunjong & Lie, Denny, 2020. "Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Qazi Haque, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target, and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    5. Ardakani, Omid M. & Kishor, N. Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2018. "Re-evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 76-97.
    6. Kim, Hyerim & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2022. "The Bank of Korea watch," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Welfare analysis; Monetary policy; Cost-push shocks; Medium-run inflation; targeting; Flat Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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