Development Of Composite Indicators Of Cyclical Response In Business Surveys Considering The Specifics Of The ‘Covid-19 Economy’
Author
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2020. "Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 27702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007.
"Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
- Bob McNabb & Karl Taylor, 2002. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
- Acharya, Sushant & Benhabib, Jess & Huo, Zhen, 2021.
"The anatomy of sentiment-driven fluctuations,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
- Zhen Huo & Jess Benhabib & Sushant Acharya, 2017. "The Anatomy of Sentiment-driven Fluctuations," 2017 Meeting Papers 513, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Sushant Acharya & Jess Benhabib & Zhen Huo, 2021. "The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations," Staff Working Papers 21-33, Bank of Canada.
- Sushant Acharya & Jess Benhabib & Zhen Huo, 2017. "The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013.
"Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
- Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997.
"Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2003.
"Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 519-522.
- Mourougane, Annabelle & Roma, Moreno, 2002. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Working Paper Series 133, European Central Bank.
- Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
- Aaron G. Grech & Reuben Ellul, 2021. "Are the European Commission’s Business and Consumer Survey Results Coincident Indicators for Maltese Economic Activity?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 91-108, April.
- Tatiana Cesaroni, 2011.
"The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 747-768, December.
- Tatiana Cesaroni, 2007. "Inspecting the cyclical properties of the Italian Manufacturing Business survey data," ISAE Working Papers 83, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif, 2021.
"Predicting the German Economy: Headline Survey Indices Under Test,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 215-232, November.
- Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Tracking and Predicting the German Economy: ifo vs. PMI," CESifo Working Paper Series 8145, CESifo.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 129-151.
- Robert Lehmann, 2023.
"The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
- Robert Lehmann, 2020. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 8291, CESifo.
- Gabe J. Bondt & Stefano Schiaffi, 2015. "Confidence Matters for Current Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area and the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1027-1040, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
- Kevin Moran & Simplice Aimé Nono & Imad Rherrad, 2018. "Forecasting with Many Predictors: How Useful are National and International Confidence Data?," Cahiers de recherche 1814, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
- G. Bruno & L. Crosilla & P. Margani, 2019. "Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, April.
- Lehmann, Robert & Wikman, Ida, 2022.
"Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States,"
MPRA Paper
112642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," ifo Working Paper Series 370, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2023. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States: New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10280, CESifo.
- Uju Violet Alola & Darya Baeva & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2023. "Determining the (A)symmetric Role of Business–Consumer Confidence in Outward–Inward Tourism in Russia: A Competitiveness Perspective," International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 22-34, June.
- Anastasiou, Dimitris & Kallandranis, Christos & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Borrower discouragement prevalence for Eurozone SMEs: Investigating the impact of economic sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 161-171.
- Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017.
"Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
- Daniel Kaufmann & Rolf Scheufele, 2015. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," KOF Working papers 15-378, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Business Confidence and Business Tourism in Japan," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 1-23, February.
- António Bento Caleiro, 2021. "Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, September.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2017.
"The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: Evidence from SIGE,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 75-104, May.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2015. "The predictive content of business survey indicators: evidence from SIGE," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1031, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Tiziana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2015. "The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: evidence from SIGE," Working Papers LuissLab 15118, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
- Robert Lehmann & Sascha Möhrle, 2024.
"Forecasting regional industrial production with novel high‐frequency electricity consumption data,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1918-1935, September.
- Robert Lehmann & Sascha Möhrle, 2022. "Forecasting Regional Industrial Production with High-Frequency Electricity Consumption Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 9917, CESifo.
- Lachezar Borisov, 2022. "Consumer Confidence And Real Economic Growth In The Eurozone," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 8(3).
- Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
- Thomas Lux & Duc Thi Luu & Boyan Yanovski, 2020. "An analysis of systemic risk in worldwide economic sentiment indices," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 909-928, November.
- André Filipe Guedes Almeida & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1669-1688, May.
- Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
- Gabe J. Bondt, 2019. "A PMI-Based Real GDP Tracker for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 147-170, December.
- Michael Lainé, 2018. "The Confidence Paradox: Can Confidence Account for Business Cycles?," Post-Print hal-04265052, HAL.
- Gabriel Caldas Montes & André Almeida, 2017. "Corruption and business confidence: a panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2692-2702.
- Raffaele Mattera & Michelangelo Misuraca & Maria Spano & Germana Scepi, 2023. "Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2357-2382, June.
More about this item
Keywords
business cycles; business surveys; business activity indicator; composite indicators of cyclical response; economic vulnerability indicator; real demand indicator; current output indicator; real employment indicator.;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:121sti2021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamil Abdulaev or Shamil Abdulaev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.