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Inflation, Exchange Rates and PPP in a Multivariate Panel Cointegration Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jacobson, Tor

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Lyhagen, Johan

    (Department of Information Science)

  • Larsson, Rolf

    (Department of Information Science)

  • Nessén, Marianne

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract
New multivariate panel cointegration methods are used to analyze nominal exchange rates and prices in four major economies in Europe; France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom for the post-Bretton Woods period. We test for purchasing power parity between these four countries and find that the theoretical PPP relationship does not hold. However, the estimated unrestricted relationship is found to be remarkably close to the theoretical one (1,-1.5,0.9 instead of 1,-1,1). Relevant asymptotic results are stated, proved, and evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. The asymptotic results are general and may hence be used in similar empirical contexts using the same model structure. Parametric bootstrap inference is used in order to deal with test size distortions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobson, Tor & Lyhagen, Johan & Larsson, Rolf & Nessén, Marianne, 2002. "Inflation, Exchange Rates and PPP in a Multivariate Panel Cointegration Model," Working Paper Series 145, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0145
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Kębłowski, 2021. "GVAR: A Case of Spurious Cross-Sectional Cointegration," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 175-187, June.
    2. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Kosma, Theodora, 2005. "Market power, innovative activity and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 531, European Central Bank.
    3. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2008. "Bayesian inference in a cointegrating panel data model," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Econometrics, pages 433-469, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal, 2011. "Exchange rates and prices in purchasing power parity framework: Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary?," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 274-286.
    5. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Theodora S. Kosma, 2006. "Market Conduct, Price Interdependence and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 51, Bank of Greece.
    6. Norkutė, Milda & Westerlund, Joakim, 2021. "The factor analytical approach in near unit root interactive effects panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 569-590.
    7. Federico Marongiu, 2004. "Devaluación e Inflacion en Argentina despues de la Convertibilidad," Macroeconomics 0404013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Didi Nuryadin, 2009. "Real exchange rate and economic fundamental: Empirical study of ASEAN-5," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(3), pages 215-230, April.
    9. Laaksonen-Craig, Susanna, 2004. "Foreign direct investments in the forest sector: implications for sustainable forest management in developed and developing countries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 359-370, June.
    10. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    11. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    12. Piotr Kębłowski, 2011. "The Behaviour of Exchange Rates in the Central European Countries and Credit Default Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 221-236, December.
    13. Urbain, J.R.Y.J. & Westerlund, J., 2008. "Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Panels time Series with Cross-Member Cointegration," Research Memorandum 044, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    14. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    15. Johan Lyhagen & Pär Österholm & Mikael Carlsson, 2007. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity in Cointegrated Panels," IMF Working Papers 2007/287, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Piotr Kębłowski, 2016. "Canonical Correlation Analysis in Panel Vector Error Correction Model. Performance Comparison," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 203-217, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; long-run purchasing power parity; multivariate cointegration analysis; bootstrap inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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