[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/rbnkwp/0409.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The low-carbon transition, climate commitments and firm credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Carbone, Sante

    (Financial Stability Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Giuzio, Margherita

    (European Central Bank)

  • Kapadia, Sujit

    (European Central Bank)

  • Krämer, Johannes Sebastian

    (European Central Bank)

  • Nyholm, Ken

    (European Central Bank)

  • Vozian, Katia

    (European Central Bank, Helsinki Graduate School of Economics, Hanken School of Economics, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE)

Abstract
This paper explores how the need to transition to a low-carbon economy influences credit risk. It develops a novel dataset covering firms’ greenhouse gas emissions over time alongside information on strategies for managing transition risk, includ ing climate disclosure practices and forward-looking emission reduction targets. It assesses how such metrics influence firms’ credit ratings and their market-implied distance-to-default. High emissions tend to be associated with higher credit risk. But disclosing emissions and setting emission reduction targets are associated with lower credit risk, with the effect somewhat stronger for more ambitious climate commitments. After the Paris agreement, firms most exposed to transition risk also saw their ratings deteriorate relative to otherwise comparable firms, with the effect larger for European than US firms, probably reflecting differential climate policy expectations. These results have policy implications for corporate disclosures and strategies around climate change, and the treatment of climate-related transition risk in the financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Carbone, Sante & Giuzio, Margherita & Kapadia, Sujit & Krämer, Johannes Sebastian & Nyholm, Ken & Vozian, Katia, 2022. "The low-carbon transition, climate commitments and firm credit risk," Working Paper Series 409, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/working-papers/2022/no.-409-the-low-carbon-transition-climate-commitments-and-firm-credit-risk.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher Marquis & Michael W. Toffel & Yanhua Zhou, 2016. "Scrutiny, Norms, and Selective Disclosure: A Global Study of Greenwashing," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 483-504, April.
    2. Misani, Nicola & Pogutz, Stefano, 2015. "Unraveling the effects of environmental outcomes and processes on financial performance: A non-linear approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 150-160.
    3. Stellner, Christoph & Klein, Christian & Zwergel, Bernhard, 2015. "Corporate social responsibility and Eurozone corporate bonds: The moderating role of country sustainability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 538-549.
    4. Fatima Alali & Asokan Anandarajan & Wei Jiang, 2012. "The effect of corporate governance on firm’s credit ratings: further evidence using governance score in the United States," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(2), pages 291-312, June.
    5. Ramin P. Baghai & Henri Servaes & Ane Tamayo, 2014. "Have Rating Agencies Become More Conservative? Implications for Capital Structure and Debt Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1961-2005, October.
    6. Jones, Stewart & Johnstone, David & Wilson, Roy, 2015. "An empirical evaluation of the performance of binary classifiers in the prediction of credit ratings changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 72-85.
    7. Nguyen, Phuong-Anh & Kecskés, Ambrus & Mansi, Sattar, 2020. "Does corporate social responsibility create shareholder value? The importance of long-term investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Doumpos, Michael & Niklis, Dimitrios & Zopounidis, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2015. "Combining accounting data and a structural model for predicting credit ratings: Empirical evidence from European listed firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 599-607.
    9. Malani, Anup & Reif, Julian, 2015. "Interpreting pre-trends as anticipation: Impact on estimated treatment effects from tort reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Jakob Thomä & Hugues Chenet, 2017. "Transition risks and market failure: a theoretical discourse on why financial models and economic agents may misprice risk related to the transition to a low-carbon economy," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 82-98, January.
    11. Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Dunz, Nepomuk & Emambakhsh, Tina & Hennig, Tristan & Kaijser, Michiel & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Parisi, Laura & Salleo, Carmelo, 2021. "ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test," Occasional Paper Series 281, European Central Bank.
    12. Kabir, Md Nurul & Rahman, Sohanur & Rahman, Md Arifur & Anwar, Mumtaheena, 2021. "Carbon emissions and default risk: International evidence from firm-level data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Angelini, 2024. "Portfolio decarbonisation strategies: questions and suggestions," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 840, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Heissel, Malte & Manu, Ana-Simona & Vinci, Francesca, 2024. "Burn now or never? Climate change exposure and investment of fossil fuel firms," Working Paper Series 2945, European Central Bank.
    3. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.-P., 2022. "Required Capital for Long-Run Risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Carlo Altavilla & Marco Pagano & Miguel Boucinha & Andrea Polo, 2023. "Climate Risk, Bank Lending and Monetary Policy," CSEF Working Papers 687, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Alexander Blasberg & Rüdiger Kiesel & Luca Taschini, 2022. "Carbon Default Swap - Disentangling the Exposure to Carbon Risk through CDS," CESifo Working Paper Series 10016, CESifo.
    6. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier, 2024. "Is climate transition risk priced into corporate credit risk? Evidence from credit default swaps," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    7. Grundmann, Justus & Silberbach, Anna & Auria, Laura, 2023. "Including carbon taxation risk in Deutsche Bundesbank's in-house credit assessment system (ICAS): An empirical analysis," Technical Papers 02/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Bingler, Julia Anna & Kraus, Mathias & Leippold, Markus & Webersinke, Nicolas, 2024. "How cheap talk in climate disclosures relates to climate initiatives, corporate emissions, and reputation risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Ma, Shiyu & Gao, Yuguo & Li, Hui, 2024. "Digital economic, resource curse and the development of low-carbon transformation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Neagu, Florian & Tatarici, Luminița & Dragu, Florin & Stamate, Amalia, 2024. "Are green loans less risky? Micro-evidence from a European Emerging Economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Adler, Martin & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Džaja, Tomislav & Manzanares, Andrés & Metra, Matteo & Vocalelli, Giorgio, 2023. "The valuation haircuts applied to eligible marketable assets for ECB credit operations," Occasional Paper Series 312, European Central Bank.
    12. Moreno, Angel-Ivan & Caminero, Teresa, 2022. "Application of text mining to the analysis of climate-related disclosures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meles, Antonio & Salerno, Dario & Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo & Zhang, Jianing, 2023. "The influence of green innovation on default risk: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 692-710.
    2. Balios, Dimitris & Thomadakis, Stavros & Tsipouri, Lena, 2016. "Credit rating model development: An ordered analysis based on accounting data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 122-136.
    3. Jaspreet Kaur & Madhu Vij & Ajay Kumar Chauhan, 2023. "Signals influencing corporate credit ratings—a systematic literature review," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 50(1), pages 91-114, March.
    4. Helena Redondo & Elisa Aracil, 2024. "Climate‐related credit risk: Rethinking the credit risk framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(S1), pages 21-33, March.
    5. Jiang, Zhiqian & Xu, Yue & Fang, Mei & Tang, Ziling & Tao, Chunhua, 2023. "How does the bond market price corporate ESG engagement? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1406-1423.
    6. Michalski, Lachlan & Low, Rand Kwong Yew, 2024. "Determinants of corporate credit ratings: Does ESG matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Hu, Xiaolu & Shi, Jing & Wang, Lafang & Yu, Jing, 2020. "Foreign ownership in Chinese credit ratings industry: Information revelation or certification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Al-Shaer, Habiba & Uyar, Ali & Kuzey, Cemil & Karaman, Abdullah S., 2023. "Do shareholders punish or reward excessive CSR engagement? Moderating effect of cash flow and firm growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Uyar, Ali & Lodh, Suman & Nandy, Monomita & Kuzey, Cemil & Karaman, Abdullah S., 2023. "Tradeoff between corporate investment and CSR: The moderating effect of financial slack, workforce slack, and board gender diversity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Koresh Galil & Neta Gilat, 2019. "Predicting Default More Accurately: To Proxy or Not to Proxy for Default?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 731-758, December.
    11. Bingler, Julia Anna & Kraus, Mathias & Leippold, Markus & Webersinke, Nicolas, 2024. "How cheap talk in climate disclosures relates to climate initiatives, corporate emissions, and reputation risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Miquel-Flores, Ixart & Reghezza, Alessio & Buchetti, Bruno & Perdichizzi, Salvatore, 2024. "Greening the economy: how public-guaranteed loans influence firm-level resource allocation," Working Paper Series 2916, European Central Bank.
    13. Bai Xue & Zhuang Zhang & Pingli Li, 2020. "Corporate environmental performance, environmental management and firm risk," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 1074-1096, March.
    14. Hans B. Christensen & Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2021. "Mandatory CSR and sustainability reporting: economic analysis and literature review," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1176-1248, September.
    15. Xia, Han, 2014. "Can investor-paid credit rating agencies improve the information quality of issuer-paid rating agencies?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 450-468.
    16. Aggarwal, Nidhi & Singh, Manish K. & Thomas, Susan, 2023. "Do decreases in Distance-to-Default predict rating downgrades?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Pengyu Chen & Zhongzhu Chu, 2024. "Mere facade? Is greenwashing behaviour lower in low‐carbon corporates?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 4162-4174, July.
    18. Nguyen, Harvey & Pham, Anh Viet & Pham, Man Duy (Marty) & Pham, Mia Hang, 2023. "Business resilience: Lessons from government responses to the global COVID-19 crisis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5).
    19. Sim, Jaehun & Kim, Chae-Soo, 2019. "The value of renewable energy research and development investments with default consideration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 530-539.
    20. Marcin Borsuk & Nicolas Eugster & Paul-Olivier Klein & Oskar Kowalewski, 2024. "Family firms and carbon emissions," Post-Print hal-04710120, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; transition risk; disclosure; net zero; green finance; credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lena Löfgren (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbgovse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.