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Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Bjerksund, Petter

    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Stensland, Gunnar

    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Vagstad, Frank

    (Viz Risk Management)

Abstract
The existence of a financial gas market motivates the analysis of gas storage as a separate asset, using the market value context for utilization and valuation. In the recent literature, gas storage is typically analysed within a framework with a simple one-factor price dynamics that is solved to optimality. We follow a different approach, where the market is represented by a forward curve with daily granularity, the price uncertainty is represented by six factors, and where we impose a simple and intuitive storage strategy that follows from repeated maximization of the intrinsic value. Based on UK natural gas market price data, we obtain the gas storage value using our approach, and compare with results from one-factor models as well as with perfect foresight. We find that our approach captures much more of the true flexibility value than the one-factor models. Our results indicate that the appropriate framework for analyzing complex assets like gas storage is a rich representation of the price dynamics combined with a simple and intuitive decision rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjerksund, Petter & Stensland, Gunnar & Vagstad, Frank, 2008. "Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods," Discussion Papers 2008/20, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2008_020
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/163950
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giulietti, Monica & Grossi, Luigi & Waterson, Michael, 2011. "A Rough Examination of the value of gas storage," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 967, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Steffen, Bjarne & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Optimal operation of pumped-hydro storage plants with continuous time-varying power prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 308-321.
    3. Nicola Secomandi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage Practice Revisited," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1131-1143, October.
    4. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Nicolas Curin & Michael Kettler & Xi Kleisinger-Yu & Vlatka Komaric & Thomas Krabichler & Josef Teichmann & Hanna Wutte, 2021. "A deep learning model for gas storage optimization," Papers 2102.01980, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    6. Nicola Secomandi & Guoming Lai & François Margot & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Duane J. Seppi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage and Term-Structure Model Error," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 302-320, July.
    7. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
    8. Arvesen, Ø. & Medbø, V. & Fleten, S.-E. & Tomasgard, A. & Westgaard, S., 2013. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-164.
    9. Bastian Felix, 2012. "Gas Storage Valuation: A Comparative Simulation Study," EWL Working Papers 1201, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    10. Patrick Hénaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2018. "Gas Storage Valuation and Hedging: A Quantification of Model Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, March.
    11. Steffen, Bjarne & Weber, Christoph, 2013. "Efficient storage capacity in power systems with thermal and renewable generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 556-567.
    12. Löhndorf, Nils & Wozabal, David, 2021. "Gas storage valuation in incomplete markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 318-330.
    13. Cummins, Mark & Kiely, Greg & Murphy, Bernard, 2018. "Gas storage valuation under multifactor Lévy processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 167-184.
    14. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Bråthen, Espen & Nissen-Meyer, Sigurd-Erik, 2010. "Evaluation of static hedging strategies for hydropower producers in the Nordic market," MPRA Paper 27133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Joakim Dimoski & Stein-Erik Fleten & Nils Löhndorf & Sveinung Nersten, 2023. "Dynamic hedging for the real option management of hydropower production with exchange rate risks," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 525-554, June.
    16. Secomandi, Nicola, 2016. "A tutorial on portfolio-based control algorithms for merchant energy trading operations," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13.
    17. Nicolas Curin & Michael Kettler & Xi Kleisinger-Yu & Vlatka Komaric & Thomas Krabichler & Josef Teichmann & Hanna Wutte, 2021. "A deep learning model for gas storage optimization," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1021-1037, December.
    18. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    19. Monica Giulietti & Luigi Grossi & Michael Waterson, 2012. "A Rough Analysis: Valuing Gas Storage," The Energy Journal, , vol. 33(4), pages 118-142, October.
    20. Patrick Henaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2013. "Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk," Papers 1312.3789, arXiv.org.
    21. Felix, Bastian Joachim & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 178-187.
    22. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    23. Gilles Pag`es & Christian Yeo, 2024. "Convex ordering for stochastic control: the swing contracts case," Papers 2406.07464, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy; uncertainty; flexibility; exercise strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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