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Lessons for Iceland from the Monetary Policy of Sweden

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Abstract
The purpose of this report is to derive lessons from inflation targeting in Sweden for the choice of the future monetary policy regime of Iceland. Swedish inflation targeting has been a success in terms of reducing inflation and inflation volatility, but real economic volatility is not lower compared to previous periods. In addition, financial imbalances have grown rapidly. A key lesson is that the Riksbank has closely shadowed the policy of the European Central Bank due to financial integration. In other words, the Riksbank has behaved as if Sweden had a fixed exchange rate to the euro. Our analysis clearly indicates that a small economy cannot pursue an independent monetary policy from the rest of the world in a financially integrated world. Consequently, we suggest a fixed exchange rate arrangement for Iceland, preferably through a currency board. A currency board would provide exchange rate and price stability. A currency board would require domestic reforms to enhance price and wage flexibility as well as proper regulations on the financial system to minimize the risk of future banking crises.

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  • Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Jonung, Lars, 2018. "Lessons for Iceland from the Monetary Policy of Sweden," Working Papers 2018:16, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2018_016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Jonung, Lars, 2019. "The Tyranny of the Tenths. The Rise and Gradual Fall of Forward Guidance in Sweden 2007-2018," Working Papers 2019:14, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    2. Fredrik N. G. Andersson, 2023. "The quest for economic stability: a study on Swedish stabilisation policies 1873–2019," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 128-156, May.
    3. Robert Amano & Thomas J. Carter & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2020. "Strengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions," Discussion Papers 2020-7, Bank of Canada.
    4. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Jonung, Lars, 2020. "Lessons from the Swedish Experience with Negative Central Bank Rates," Working Papers 2020:15, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Kilman, Josefin, 2022. "Monetary Policy Shocks for Sweden," Working Papers 2022:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; inflation targeting; financial stability; Riksbank; Sweden; Iceland; Central Bank of Iceland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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