[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/osloec/2013_026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trygve Haavelmo at the Cowles Commission

Author

Listed:
  • Bjerkholt, Olav

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract
The article reviews the early history of the Cowles Commission, its close and intertwined relations with the Econometric Society (ES), and the influence and guidance of Ragnar Frisch. It provides much detail on the three rounds of choosing a research director, in 1937-38, in 1939 and at the end of 1942. Haavelmo’s work in the early 1940s came to play a major role for the econometric research at the Cowles Commission under Jacob Marschak as research director 1943-48. The article points to the importance of Abraham Wald and Jacob Marschak for the success of Haavelmo’s venture and its influence and tells the story of how it came about that Haavelmo’s ideas were adopted, applied and disseminated by the Cowles Commission. Thus the mention of Trygve Haavelmo in the title is referring also to his econometric ideas. The ideas themselves and their further evolvement at the CC have been a dominating theme in the history of econometrics literature, e.g. Hildreth (1986), Epstein (1987), Morgan (1990), Qin (1993) and Christ (1994). The article discusses the recruitment, the inner workings and various other concerns of the Cowles econometricians, from Marxism to Black Magic. It recounts at some length the efforts made by Marschak to recruit Abraham Wald to the University of Chicago and the Cowles Commission. The article can be read as a sequel to Bjerkholt (2005, 2007).

Suggested Citation

  • Bjerkholt, Olav, 2013. "Trygve Haavelmo at the Cowles Commission," Memorandum 26/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2013/memo-26-2013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christ, Carl F, 1994. "The Cowles Commission's Contributions to Econometrics at Chicago, 1939-1955," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 30-59, March.
    2. Marcel Boumans, 2010. "The Problem of Passive Observation," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 75-110, Spring.
    3. Hendry,David F. & Morgan,Mary S., 1997. "The Foundations of Econometric Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588706, September.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Harald Hagemann, 2016. "Jacob Marschak (1898–1977)," Chapters, in: Gilbert Faccarello & Heinz D. Kurz (ed.), Handbook on the History of Economic Analysis Volume I, chapter 81, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Bjerkholt, Olav, 2010. "The “Meteorological” and the “Engineering” Type of Econometric Inference: a 1943 Exchange between Trygve Haavelmo and Jakob Marschak," Memorandum 07/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. Bjerkholt, Olav, 2007. "Writing “The Probability Approach” With Nowhere To Go: Haavelmo In The United States, 1939–1944," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 775-837, October.
    8. Tjalling Koopmans, 1941. "The Logic of Econometric Business-Cycle Research," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 157-157.
    9. Winton U. Solberg & Robert W. Tomilson, 1997. "Academic McCarthyism and Keynesian Economics: The Bowen Controversy at the University of Illinois," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 55-81, Spring.
    10. Lawrence R. Klein, 1947. "Theories of Effective Demand and Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 108-108.
    11. Epstein, Roy J, 1989. "The Fall of OLS in Structural Estimation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 94-107, January.
    12. Bjerkholt, Olav, 2005. "Frisch'S Econometric Laboratory And The Rise Of Trygve Haavelmo'S Probability Approach," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 491-533, June.
    13. Béatrice Cherrier, 2010. "Rationalizing Human Organization in an Uncertain World: Jacob Marschak, from Ukrainian Prisons to Behavioral Science Laboratories," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 443-467, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erich Pinzón Fuchs, 2014. "Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein's Econometrics," Post-Print halshs-01130762, HAL.
    2. Robert W. Dimand, 2020. "Macroeconomic dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 564-581, July.
    3. n.d., 2015. "Glimpses of Henry Schultz in Mussolini?s 1934 Italy," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 93-113.
    4. Bjerkholt, Olav, 2014. "Lawrence R. Klein 1920–2013: Notes on the early years," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 767-784.
    5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2016. "Tribute to T. W. Anderson," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2081, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Juan Pablo Castilla, 2020. "To Kill a Black Swan: The Credibility Revolution at CEDE, 2000-2018," Documentos CEDE 18366, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2016. "Meritocracy Voting: Measuring the Unmeasurable," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 2-40, January.
    8. André K. Anundsen & Tord S. Krogh & Ragnar Nymoen & Jon Vislie, 2014. "Overdeterminacy and Endogenous Cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's Business Cycle Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 460-486, July.
    9. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2827-2853, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Erich Pinzón Fuchs, 2014. "Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein's Econometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Robert W. Dimand, 2020. "Macroeconomic dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 564-581, July.
    5. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    6. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    7. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    8. Marcel Boumans & Ariane Dupont-Kieffer, 2011. "A History of the Histories of Econometrics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 43(5), pages 5-31, Supplemen.
    9. Robert W. Dimand, 2019. "The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2207, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    11. André K. Anundsen & Tord S. Krogh & Ragnar Nymoen & Jon Vislie, 2014. "Overdeterminacy and Endogenous Cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's Business Cycle Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 460-486, July.
    12. Pedro Garcia Duarte & Kevin D. Hoover, 2012. "Observing Shocks," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 226-249, Supplemen.
    13. Guido W. Imbens, 2022. "Causality in Econometrics: Choice vs Chance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2541-2566, November.
    14. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    15. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    16. Peter Hull & Michal Kolesár & Christopher Walters, 2022. "Labor by design: contributions of David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 603-645, July.
    17. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 113-144.
    18. Giorgio Fagiolo & Paul Windrum & Alessio Moneta, 2006. "Empirical Validation of Agent Based Models: A Critical Survey," LEM Papers Series 2006/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. James H. Stock & Francesco Trebbi, 2003. "Retrospectives: Who Invented Instrumental Variable Regression?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 177-194, Summer.
    20. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2827-2853, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trygve Haavelmo; Cowles Commission for Research in Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mari Strønstad Øverås (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/souiono.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.