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On the mean and variance of the estimated tangency portfolio weights for small samples

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Abstract
In this paper, we consider the sample estimator of the tangency portfolio (TP) weights, where the inverse of the sample covariance matrix plays an important role. We assume that the number of observations is less than the number of assets in the portfolio, and the returns are independent and identically multivariate normally distributed. Under these assumptions, the sample covariance matrix follows a singular Wishart distribution and, therefore, the regular inverse cannot be taken. This paper delivers bounds and approximations for the rst two moments of the estimated TP weights, as well as exact results when the population covariance matrix is equal to the identity matrix, employing the Moore-Penrose inverse. Moreover, exact moments based on the re exive generalized inverse are provided. The properties of the bounds are investigated in a simulation study, where they are compared to the sample moments. The di erence between the moments based on the re exive generalized inverse and the sample moments based the Moore-Penrose inverse is also studied.

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  • Alfelt, Gustav & Mazur, Stepan, 2020. "On the mean and variance of the estimated tangency portfolio weights for small samples," Working Papers 2020:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2020_008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taras Bodnar & Stepan Mazur & Krzysztof Podgórski, 2017. "A test for the global minimum variance portfolio for small sample and singular covariance," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 101(3), pages 253-265, July.
    2. Taras Bodnar & Stepan Mazur & Nestor Parolya, 2019. "Central limit theorems for functionals of large sample covariance matrix and mean vector in matrix‐variate location mixture of normal distributions," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 46(2), pages 636-660, June.
    3. Bodnar, Taras & Mazur, Stepan & Okhrin, Yarema, 2013. "On the exact and approximate distributions of the product of a Wishart matrix with a normal vector," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 70-81.
    4. Muhinyuza, Stanislas & Bodnar, Taras & Lindholm, Mathias, 2020. "A test on the location of the tangency portfolio on the set of feasible portfolios," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    5. Tsukuma, Hisayuki, 2016. "Estimation of a high-dimensional covariance matrix with the Stein loss," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Mark Britten‐Jones, 1999. "The Sampling Error in Estimates of Mean‐Variance Efficient Portfolio Weights," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 655-671, April.
    7. David Bauder & Taras Bodnar & Stepan Mazur & Yarema Okhrin, 2018. "Bayesian Inference For The Tangent Portfolio," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Taras Bodnar & Yarema Okhrin, 2011. "On the Product of Inverse Wishart and Normal Distributions with Applications to Discriminant Analysis and Portfolio Theory," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 38(2), pages 311-331, June.
    9. Bodnar, Taras & Mazur, Stepan & Podgórski, Krzysztof, 2016. "Singular inverse Wishart distribution and its application to portfolio theory," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 314-326.
    10. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Muhinyuza, Stanislas, 2020. "Statistical Inference for the Tangency Portfolio in High Dimension," Working Papers 2020:10, Örebro University, School of Business.
    11. Mårten Gulliksson & Stepan Mazur, 2020. "An Iterative Approach to Ill-Conditioned Optimal Portfolio Selection," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 773-794, December.
    12. Okhrin, Yarema & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2006. "Distributional properties of portfolio weights," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 235-256, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mårten Gulliksson & Anna Oleynik & Stepan Mazur, 2024. "Portfolio Selection with a Rank-Deficient Covariance Matrix," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(6), pages 2247-2269, June.
    2. Farrukh Javed & Stepan Mazur & Erik Thorsén, 2024. "Tangency portfolio weights under a skew-normal model in small and large dimensions," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(7), pages 1395-1406, July.
    3. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Muhinyuza, Stanislas, 2020. "Statistical Inference for the Tangency Portfolio in High Dimension," Working Papers 2020:10, Örebro University, School of Business.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tangency portfolio; Singular inverse Wishart; Moore-Penrose inverse; Reexive generalized inverse; Estimator moments.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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