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Effects of driverless vehicles: A review of simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Pernestål Brenden , Anna

    (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI))

  • Kristoffersson , Ida

    (VTI)

Abstract
The development of driverless vehicles is fast, and the technology has the potential to significantly affect the transport system, society and environment. However, there are still many open questions regarding what this development will look like and there are several counteracting forces. This paper addresses the effects of driverless vehicles by performing a literature review of twenty papers that use simulation to model effects of driverless vehicles. By combing and analysing the results from these simulation studies, an overall picture of the effects of driverless vehicles is presented. The paper shows that focus in existing literature has been on effects of driverless taxi applications in urban areas. Some parameters, such as trip cost and waiting time, show small variations between the reviewed papers. Other parameters, such as vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), show larger variations and depend heavily on the assumptions concerning value of time and level of sharing. In general, increases in VKT are predicted for most applications. Ride sharing has the potential to reduce VKT, and thereby energy consumption and congestion, but the analysis indicates that a sufficient level of ride sharing to reduce VKT will not be achieved without incentives or regulations. Furthermore, the VKT of driverless vehicles is unevenly distributed from a time and space perspective, with larger increases in VKT during peak hours than in off-peak, and in the suburbs compared to city centres. The reviewed papers provide a first prediction of factors such as waiting time, VKT and trip cost, in particular for urban areas and for schemes where there is one service provider present. To get a deeper understanding of the effects of driverless vehicles, aspects such as local spatial considerations, e.g. at pick-up stations, and more complex schemes with competition between service providers should be studied. Furthermore, there is a need for sensitivity analyses regarding travel demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Pernestål Brenden , Anna & Kristoffersson , Ida, 2018. "Effects of driverless vehicles: A review of simulations," Working papers in Transport Economics 2018:11, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2018_011
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cts.kth.se/polopoly_fs/1.827829!/CTS2018-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Long T. Truong & Chris Gruyter & Graham Currie & Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1279-1292, November.
    2. Bert Van Wee & David Banister, 2016. "How to Write a Literature Review Paper?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 278-288, March.
    3. Chen, T. Donna & Kockelman, Kara M. & Hanna, Josiah P., 2016. "Operations of a shared, autonomous, electric vehicle fleet: Implications of vehicle & charging infrastructure decisions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 243-254.
    4. Jeffery B. Greenblatt & Samveg Saxena, 2015. "Autonomous taxis could greatly reduce greenhouse-gas emissions of US light-duty vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 860-863, September.
    5. Ye, Lanhang & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki, 2018. "Modeling connected and autonomous vehicles in heterogeneous traffic flow," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 269-277.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Almlöf, Erik & Nybacka, Mikael & Pernestål, Anna & Jenelius, Erik, 2022. "Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology? Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Martin Adler & Stefanie Peer & Tanja Sinozic, 2019. "Autonomous, Connected, Electric Shared vehicles (ACES) and public finance: an explorative analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-005/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Driverless vehicle; Automated vehicle; Autonomous taxi; Traffic simulation; Societal effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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