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House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults

Author

Listed:
  • Paul E. Carrillo

    (George Washington University)

  • William M. Doerner

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William D. Larson

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract
The transaction price of identical housing units can vary widely due to heterogeneity in buyer and seller preferences, appraisers, and search costs, generating "markups" above or below the average market price. These markups are mean reverting upon subsequent transactions, suggesting transitory factors play a role in same-unit dynamics. We show markups are an important driver of mortgage delinquencies, defaults, prepayments, and credit losses conditional on default. In general, our findings highlight several important aspects of mortgage risk management, including underwriting, insurance, and unit-level house value dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul E. Carrillo & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2018. "House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults," FHFA Staff Working Papers 18-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:18-02
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12940
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Calem & Jeanna Kenney & Lauren Lambie‐Hanson & Leonard Nakamura, 2021. "Appraising home purchase appraisals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 134-168, March.
    2. Ming-Tsung Hung & Huai-Chun Lo, 2024. "Risk Analysis of Mortgage Loan Default for Bank Customers and AI Machine Learning," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(6), pages 1-3.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    collateral risk; automated valuation model; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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